Paraguay and Australia to face off for a direct playoff spot: prediction for Paraguay vs Australia - 26.06.2026
The national teams of Paraguay and Australia will clash on June 26, 2026, in the third round of the World Cup group stage. The match will take place at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara - a venue where every mistake could prove costly: the winner of this encounter secures direct passage to the playoffs as the runner-up in Group D, while the loser will likely have to hope for advancement from third place.
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Paraguay: resilience proven, but it gets tougher without Almirón
Paraguay clinched a crucial 1-0 victory over Turkey in the second round. An early goal by Matías Galarza gave the Guaraní a comfortable scenario, after which Gustavo Alfaro's side had to display immense patience, especially given the opponent's pressure and having to play a whole half with ten men.
Still, Paraguay weren't just defending - they occasionally found opportunities to strike back. Against Australia, the team is likely to enjoy more possession than it did versus Turkey, which will require a different approach in midfield. The biggest loss is the suspension of Miguel Almirón, a key figure in transitioning from defense to attack. In his absence, more responsibility will fall on Diego Gómez, Matías Galarza, and Damián Bobadilla.
Australia: lessons to learn and more attacking quality needed after the USA
Australia entered the second round in good spirits after a 2-0 win over Turkey, but then suffered a setback against the USA. Tony Popovic's team quickly found themselves chasing the game, and after conceding a second goal, they couldn't break through the well-organized American defense.
The Socceroos have a clear structure: a 5-4-1 formation, energetic full-backs, a compact midfield, and a focus on intense transitions down the flanks. But those adventurous wing-backs could pose problems against Paraguay, who are adept at exploiting open spaces. In attack, Australia hasn't been particularly convincing either: over the last 12 matches, they've scored more than once only against Curaçao and New Zealand.
Probable lineups
- Paraguay: Gil, Alonso, Alderete, Gómez, Cáceres, Galarza, Bobadilla, Cubas, Gómez, Pitta, César Enciso.
- Australia: Beach, Italiano, Chiarcati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos, Metcalfe, O'Neill, Okoń-Engstler, Irankunda, Touré.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Only one out of five head-to-head matches between Paraguay and Australia produced more than two goals.
- Paraguay has never scored more than one goal against Australia.
- At this and the previous World Cups, Australia averages fewer than seven shots per match.
Caution outweighs ambition: prediction for Paraguay vs Australia
Both teams are in a scenario where a win guarantees a direct ticket to the playoffs, but defeat could seriously complicate matters. As a result, this match is unlikely to be wide open. Paraguay knows how to dig in, defend compactly, and wait for their moment, but without Almirón, their counter-attacks lose quality and the team's play becomes less versatile.
Australia doesn't look like a side ready to confidently dominate possession either. They bring physicality, wide play, and discipline in midfield, but still struggle to create chances. In a game like this, the first goal could be decisive, but overall, expect a cautious affair with minimal errors.
