A fierce derby right at the start of the season. Prediction for South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Melbourne United
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Melbourne United
South East Melbourne Phoenix and Melbourne United will meet on Thursday, September 24, in the second round of the Australian NBL regular season. The game will be played at John Cain Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 11:30 CET. I am backing a winner in this matchup.
H2H and statistical facts
- Melbourne Phoenix have won three consecutive official games on their home court.
- Melbourne United have lost their last two official games.
- United have come out on top in the last five derbies.
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Phoenix opened the season with an impressive 100:79 win over the Perth Wildcats. The team played an excellent second quarter, scoring 30 points, before finally breaking the opposition's resistance in the closing stages. The defense was particularly impressive, allowing Phoenix to turn Perth's high number of turnovers and mistakes into easy points in transition.
However, just two days later, Phoenix faced a completely different kind of workload. Against Tasmania, the team held a 16-point lead and finished the first half ahead 52:38, but could not maintain its tempo after the break. The JackJumpers produced a powerful third quarter, scoring 36 points, and eventually won 96:91. As a result, Phoenix head into their next game with one win and one loss.
The standout discovery of the opening games has been 18-year-old Dash Daniels. In his debut against Perth, he scored 24 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, shooting 9 of 13 from the field. His numbers were more modest in Tasmania – 11 points, four assists and three rebounds – but the young forward remains one of the key factors capable of changing the course of the game.
Another important Phoenix player is Tanner Krebs. He scored 25 points in the season opener, adding four assists and three steals, while also knocking down five three-pointers. Skylar Mays demonstrated in both games that he can control the offense and create opportunities for his teammates. Phoenix are still without Nathan Sobey, who is missing games due to a back problem.
Melbourne United
Unlike their opponents, United have played just one game since the start of the season. The team opened NBL27 with a home meeting against Adelaide and lost 95:97. Melbourne spent most of the game chasing the score, but managed to cut the deficit in the fourth quarter and had chances to hit the game-winning shot.
That said, the defeat does not look catastrophic for Jacob Chance's team. United shot 50.7% from the field, committed just nine turnovers and lost by only two points. The main problem came on the glass: Adelaide won the rebounding battle 33:24 and were also more accurate from beyond the arc, making 13 three-pointers to United's seven.
The headline event of the game was Cole Anthony's debut. The former Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic player scored 30 points in just 21:49 on the court, shooting 10 of 21 from the field and 3 of 7 from three-point range. His minutes restriction was related to a minor calf injury, so the key question now is how heavy a workload the American guard will receive in the second round.
Joe Ingles was another crucial factor for United. In his first official game since returning to Australian basketball, the experienced Australian posted 12 points, five rebounds and seven assists. Given that Melbourne have had several extra days to prepare, the team should enter the Throwdown physically fresher than Phoenix.
What is the best bet?
The upcoming game looks fairly even, but United have several factors in their favor. Melbourne have had more time to recover, while Phoenix played two demanding games in a short span and were unable to preserve their lead in the second one. In addition, United will surely draw conclusions from their defeat to Adelaide, while Anthony should receive more playing time. With that in mind, I am backing the nominal visitors to win.
