Who will lift the trophy? Opta supercomputer reveals Champions League favorite
The analytics portal Opta Analyst has updated its predictions for the winner of the 2025/26 Champions League ahead of the Round of 16 kick-off. The supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the remaining tournament, assessing each team's chances of progressing to the next round and ultimately claiming the title.
Details: According to the latest projections from the Opta supercomputer, London’s Arsenal is the leading contender for Champions League glory, with a probability of 26.7%. Mikel Arteta’s squad has shown remarkable consistency, and the mathematical model gives them a record 43% chance of reaching the final. Bayern Munich ranks second among the favorites at 16.4%, maintaining their reputation as a European powerhouse.
The English giants’ prospects are closely matched: Liverpool and Manchester City are nearly neck and neck. The Merseyside club’s title probability is 11.4%, while Guardiola’s men are given an 11.1% chance. Barcelona rounds out the top five contenders at 9.7%, with the supercomputer rating their semifinal prospects impressively high—44%.
At the other end of the spectrum, Turkish side Galatasaray is the biggest underdog among the remaining teams, with just a 0.4% chance of winning the tournament. Bayer Leverkusen (0.5%) and Atalanta (0.6%) also have slim hopes. Surprisingly, Real Madrid finds itself far down the list: due to a tough draw, the supercomputer gives Los Blancos just a 1.9% chance—ranking them 11th overall.
These forecasts are based on a vast array of data, including current player form, head-to-head stats, and the difficulty of the tournament bracket.
Reminder: Mohamed Salah became Liverpool’s record holder for most Champions League appearances in the club’s history.
Steven Perez
Dailysports's expert
