What to expect from the Italian derby? Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction and odds - June 3, 2026
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros is nearing its conclusion, and with each passing day the field of title contenders is narrowing. On June 3, an all-Italian quarterfinal awaits as Matteo Berrettini faces Matteo Arnaldi—here’s my take on their upcoming battle.
See also: Haiti vs New Zealand prediction and betting tips 03 June 2026
Matteo Berrettini
Once considered a promising talent, Berrettini is striving to reclaim his spot among the elite. About five years ago, he was delivering top-level performances, breaking into the top 10 and even reaching the Wimbledon final. Gradually, his results declined, and he became an inconsistent mid-tier player; now, he doesn’t even crack the top 100, currently ranked 105th in the world.
There weren’t many signs pointing to a strong Roland Garros run, yet Berrettini has made it to the quarterfinals and is poised to climb at least into the top 50. On his way here, he defeated Hungary’s Fucsovics—6:7, 7:5, 6:1, 6:2—and France’s Rinderknech—6:4, 6:4, 6:4. His match against Argentina’s Comesaña was a true marathon, with everything decided in a dramatic fifth-set super tiebreak, where Berrettini had to save two match points.
Matteo Arnaldi
Arnaldi hasn’t enjoyed major career successes; he’s your classic journeyman who’s also seen a gradual decline. At 25, he’s five years younger than his upcoming opponent and sits just one spot ahead in the rankings at No. 104.
This season, Arnaldi has shown solid form on clay, even winning a Challenger title in Cagliari—a tournament that, while not the strongest, still featured a competitive field. None of his matches at this Grand Slam have been straightforward; he’s yet to win a match in straight sets.
Arnaldi launched his campaign with a win over Dutchman Griekspoor—6:7, 6:3, 7:6, 6:3—then toppled Greece’s Tsitsipas—6:7, 7:5, 6:3, 6:2. He went the distance in five-set thrillers against Belgium’s Collignon—6:4, 6:7, 5:7, 6:4, 7:6—and American Tiafoe—7:6, 6:7, 3:6, 7:6, 6:4, staging a comeback from 1:4 down in the fourth set. This current quarterfinal marks his best-ever run at a major.
Prediction
In this Italian derby, Berrettini is considered a slight favorite, thanks to his experience. Although the two are familiar with each other and hail from the same country, they’ve never faced off in an official match. Motivation will be sky-high, with a Grand Slam semifinal berth on the line. The winner will meet whoever prevails between Auger-Aliassime and Cobolli, so there’s even a chance for an all-Italian semifinal. Expect a fierce battle—my pick is over 37.5 games at 1.77 odds.
