New York Red Bulls vs New York City: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — September 28, 2025
Red Bull New York
New York City FC
In the regular MLS season, a showdown between the two New York clubs—Red Bulls and City—is set to take place. The match kicks off in the early hours of Sunday, September 28, with the start time scheduled for 01:30 Central European Time. My tip: expect a high-scoring affair.
Match preview
New York Red Bulls head into the derby in shaky form: the team alternates between wins and setbacks, but continues to show great energy and attacking intent.
Sandro Schwarz’s side traditionally relies on pressing across the width of the pitch, forcing opponents into mistakes and turnovers. This tactic pays off against less organized teams, but against sides with strong ball control, it can lead to defensive collapses.
At home, the Red Bulls play with even more aggression. The fans are a constant source of pressure, and the team pushes for an early goal to set the tempo. This season, they often strike first but struggle to hold onto their lead until the final whistle.
The Red Bulls’ Achilles heel remains their defensive inconsistency. The backline regularly commits positional errors, especially late in games, making it tough to contend for the top spots in the Eastern Conference. Their main challenge will be an indirect battle with Chicago Fire. The Bulls trail their rivals by two points and have played one more match.
The other New York club is enjoying a much steadier campaign. City have been more consistent than their neighbors, looking organized and composed throughout the season. Their strategy is built on ball possession and intelligent attacking transitions through midfield.
Jansen’s men are patient, working the opposition until a killer through-ball opportunity opens up—moments where their technical ability truly shines. The main weapon remains Alonso Martinez, who, with 17 goals, has already matched last season’s tally.
City’s attacking flexibility keeps them competitive even against aggressive, hard-pressing opponents. However, at times they lack pace in transitioning from defense to attack, as highlighted in their recent 0-4 defeat to Inter Miami.
On the road, City aren’t always rock-solid, but the derby against the Red Bulls always holds special significance for both the team and their supporters. With playoff qualification already secured, they can afford to play with more freedom.
Match facts
- The Red Bulls have won just one of their last four matches.
- At home, the Red Bulls are unbeaten in their last four outings.
- City are unbeaten in five consecutive MLS away games.
- The Red Bulls average 1 goal per home match, while City average 1.8 goals per away game.
Probable lineups
- New York Red Bulls: Carlos Coronel, Eile, Parker, Duncan, Morales, Edelman, Donkor, Carmona, Forsberg, Hull, Choupo-Moting.
- New York City: Freese, Haak, Thiago Martins, Simon, O'Toole, O'Neill, Morales, Perea, Mercado, Wolf, Martinez.
H2H
The last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams have been perfectly balanced: one draw and three wins apiece.
Prediction
Given the playing styles of both teams, this derby promises goals. The Red Bulls play boldly at home but are vulnerable at the back, while City have the tools to punish mistakes and aren’t under major pressure in terms of the standings. In my view, betting on over 2.5 total goals is a smart choice here.
