Marseille vs Ajax prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 30.09.2025
One of the fixtures of Matchday 2 in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Tuesday at the 'Vélodrome' in Marseille, as the local side Marseille host Dutch giants Ajax. Here’s a bet on the outcome of this clash with strong chances for success.
Match preview
Marseille left a strong impression in the opening round, despite a 1-2 defeat to Real Madrid. Roberto De Zerbi’s team battled on equal terms until the very end, losing only after a controversial penalty—a testament to the squad’s high level of preparation and mental resilience.
On home turf, the French club is traditionally formidable: in their last eight home games against Dutch opposition, they have lost just once. Moreover, in Ligue 1, Marseille have put in two confident performances, keeping clean sheets in both—including against PSG in 'Le Classique'.
Ajax started the group stage with a toothless 0-2 loss to Inter, registering only two shots on target. The team is currently rebuilding under John Heitinga and is struggling, especially amid erratic form in the Eredivisie.
Ajax are yet to win away this season, but historically they tend to perform well on the road in the Champions League. However, defensive frailties are showing—Ajax have conceded at least once in each of their last six group stage matches, and haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home in the competition since 2019.
Probable lineups
- Marseille: Rulli, Pavard, Balerdi, Medina, Palmieri, O’Riley, Højbjerg, Greenwood, Gomes, Weah, Aubameyang
- Ajax: Jaros, Gaaei, Sutalo, Baas, Wijndal, Klaassen, McConnell, Taylor, Edvardsen, Weghorst, Godts
Match facts and head-to-head
- Marseille are unbeaten against Ajax in their last five head-to-head meetings.
- Marseille have conceded in 21 of their last 22 Champions League matches.
- Ajax haven’t won a Champions League match since November 2022.
Prediction
Marseille look the more organized and motivated team, while the visitors are still searching for their best lineup and consistency. The French side, backed by their passionate home crowd, should capitalize on Ajax’s defensive uncertainty. Back Marseille to win at odds of 1.60.
