Home-side pragmatism against the Bundesliga's biggest surprise. Schalke vs Elversberg prediction
Schalke and Elversberg will meet on Sunday, September 20, in the fourth round of the German Bundesliga. The match will be played at Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen, with kickoff scheduled for 17:30 Central European Time. I am backing goals in this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Schalke are still without a home win in the new season.
- Elversberg have scored and conceded in all four matches this campaign.
- Elversberg have conceded in every away match since October last year.
- Elversberg have beaten Schalke just twice, with both victories coming in Gelsenkirchen.
An inconsistent start to the season after returning to the Bundesliga
Schalke returned to the Bundesliga after earning promotion and have made a fairly inconsistent start so far. In their first three matches, the team recorded one win, one draw and one defeat. Their goal difference stands at 3:4, meaning that attacking output remains the main concern: the team are scoring exactly one goal per match on average.
The start of the season has been a difficult one. Schalke lost 0:3 to Augsburg before managing to take points from reigning champions Bayern Munich in a 0:0 draw at Veltins-Arena. On matchday three, the Gelsenkirchen side finally secured their first win by beating Union Berlin 3:1 away from home. As a result, the team head into this home fixture on the back of their first truly impressive result of the season.
It is particularly significant that Schalke managed to reorganize their defensive play after the heavy defeat to Augsburg. The team conceded just one goal in their matches against Bayern and Union, while the game against the Munich giants was a textbook example of a well-organized performance without the ball. Goalkeeper Loris Karius produced one of the best displays of the opening weeks of the season and helped his team keep a clean sheet.
Schalke will now look to build on that positive trend at home. After three rounds, the team sit in mid-table, but a potential victory would significantly improve their position. Their opponents are certain to pose serious problems, however, as Elversberg have already shown that they can play expansively and score against more prestigious sides.
The Bundesliga's biggest surprise
Elversberg, meanwhile, have been one of the biggest revelations of the opening weeks of the season. The Bundesliga newcomers have won two of their three matches and collected six points. Their attacking numbers are particularly impressive: Elversberg are averaging almost three goals per game.
In the opening round, Elversberg quickly showed their character against one of the league's strongest clubs. The team beat Bayer 3:2 before securing a 4:3 away victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach. Those results lifted the newcomers into the upper half of the table and proved that they can make the most of their attacking opportunities.
However, Elversberg faced a much sterner test in the last round. Playing at home, the team lost 1:2 to Bayern Munich. The hosts opened the scoring first and then managed to equalize after the break through a goal from Maurice Krattenmacher. Harry Kane scored the winner only in the 72nd minute, so Elversberg once again showed that they can go toe-to-toe with even the biggest sides.
The team do have one obvious weakness, though: their defense. Seven goals conceded in three rounds is one of the highest figures among Bundesliga clubs, and all three of Elversberg's matches have finished with at least three goals scored. The encounter in Gelsenkirchen could therefore turn into a clash between a more cautious Schalke side and an Elversberg team that are highly aggressive in attack.
Probable lineups
- Schalke: Karius, Becker, Katic, Kurucay, Ebimbe, Gosens, Tanaka, El-Faouzi, Karaman, Aouchiche, Adamu.
- Elversberg: Kristof, Günther, Rohr, Pinkert, Gjamara, Keidel, Porembа, Darwich, Petkov, Campbell, Mokwa.
What to bet on?
The teams have different approaches, but both are capable of creating chances in the final third. Schalke received a psychological boost from their win over Union and will have the support of their home fans, while Elversberg have already shown that they are not afraid to take the initiative and attack even against strong opponents. Given the visitors' attacking output and both teams' defensive frailties, over 2.5 goals looks like the best option.
