Benfica vs Bayer prediction, H2H and probable lineups – November 5, 2025
One of the matches of the 4th round of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage will take place on Wednesday at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, where Portuguese side Benfica will host Germany’s Bayer Leverkusen. Here’s my take on the outcome of this clash, factoring in both teams’ form and the visitors’ squad issues.
Match preview
The Lisbon side is enduring an extremely tough spell in European competition — three straight defeats without a single point and just two goals scored. Losses to Qarabag, Chelsea, and Newcastle have exposed all the team’s weaknesses, most notably their lackluster attack and shortage of aggression in the final third.
However, in the Portuguese league the club looks confident: ten matches unbeaten, five consecutive clean-sheet wins, and 11 goals in their last three games. This stark contrast between domestic and European form underscores the urgent need to bounce back in front of their own fans — especially in a pivotal showdown against an unstable opponent.
Bayer, too, can’t boast of consistency in the Champions League: two draws against Copenhagen and PSV, followed by a humiliating 2-7 home loss to PSG. After that, the team also suffered a Bundesliga defeat, falling 0-3 to Bayern Munich, which marked Hjulmand’s first league loss as manager.
Injuries to key players and the captain’s suspension have disrupted the midfield balance — a critical issue ahead of such an important fixture. Despite a decent away record this season (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), the German side will find it extremely tough to handle a highly motivated Benfica given their current personnel problems.
Probable lineups
- Benfica: Trubin, Aursnes, Otamendi, Araujo, Dahl, Barrenetxea, Rios, Schjelderup, Sudakov, Lukebakio, Pavlidis
- Bayer: Flekken, Tapsoba, Balde, Quansah, Grimaldo, Garcia, Echeverri, Arthur, Poku, Kofane, Schick
Match facts and head-to-head
- Bayer have failed to win in the Champions League after three opening rounds for the first time in nine years.
- Benfica have won two of four head-to-head meetings, but last lost 1-3 back in 2013.
- The Portuguese side have kept five straight league clean sheets, scoring 11 goals in that span.
Prediction
Both sides are desperate for victory, but Benfica look more composed and balanced given their opponent’s struggles. The hosts have shored up their defense, and home support should play a crucial role. Considering Bayer’s depleted midfield and the fatigue from recent setbacks, our bet for this match is “Benfica to win with a (0) handicap” at odds of 1.55.
