Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 05.05.2026
One of the second-leg fixtures of the Champions League semi-finals will take place in London on Tuesday, where local side Arsenal will host Atletico Madrid at the Emirates. After a 1-1 draw in the first leg, the intrigue remains at its peak, but Mikel Arteta's side have a slight strategic edge thanks to home advantage.
Match preview
Arsenal came away from Madrid with a result that, before the match, would have been considered more than acceptable, but during the game the Gunners were left with a sense of unfinished business. Viktor Gyökeres' goal from the penalty spot and a controversial incident with a disallowed second penalty left Arteta frustrated, though a draw away in the Champions League semi-final is a position of strength, not a reason to panic.
Before the return leg, the Gunners received an extra confidence boost after a 3-0 win over Fulham in the Premier League. Particularly important was Bukayo Saka's sharp form and Gyökeres' brace: Arsenal's attack looked free-flowing, quick and aggressive again — a crucial factor against Diego Simeone's side, who are masters at dragging their opponents into a scrappy game. Notably, Arteta's team had scored a maximum of one goal in eight of their previous nine encounters.
Atletico approach the second leg without any serious pressure in La Liga, so Simeone allowed himself extensive rotation in the game against Valencia. Even Atletico's reserves claimed a 2-0 victory, while key players like Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Alexander Sørloth and David Gantzko were able to get some needed rest.
Still, Atletico's spring form remains mixed: they recently endured a run of seven defeats in eight matches, but now the team is clearly regaining confidence. The visitors' main bet is on experience, Griezmann's composure, Alvarez's bursts, and Simeone's ability to play these nervy matches, where a single moment can turn the entire scenario upside down. Incidentally, Simeone's side have scored in 12 consecutive Champions League matches.
Probable lineups
- Arsenal: Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié, Rice, Zubimendi, Saka, Eze, Trossard, Gyökeres.
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Pubill, Gantzko, Ruggeri, Simeone, Koke, Cardoso, Lookman, Alvarez, Griezmann.
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first semi-final leg in Madrid ended 1-1, with both goals scored from the penalty spot.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in the 2025/26 Champions League and can set a new club record for their longest unbeaten run in the competition.
- The Gunners have already beaten Atletico at the Emirates this season (4-0), but the Madrid side knocked Arsenal out in the 2017/18 Europa League semi-finals.
Arsenal have conceded just six goals in the Champions League (best record).
The Gunners have not received a single red card in this Champions League campaign.
- Los Colchoneros have scored 35 goals in this Champions League, behind only Bayern (42) and PSG (43).
- No more than four yellow cards have been shown in regular time in each of Arsenal's last 16 Champions League home games.
Prediction
Atletico certainly won't come to London to play recklessly: Simeone will wait for mistakes, slow the tempo, and look for openings through Alvarez and Griezmann. But Atletico's problem is that their defence on the road has looked far from solid lately, and against this Arsenal side, such vulnerability almost always leads to chances. Arteta's team have more attacking freshness, a stronger home impulse, and a clearer path to victory: high pressing, quick switches to Saka, and Gyökeres' relentless work in the box. Atletico are capable of grabbing a goal, but in terms of quality and current momentum, the Gunners look closer to the final.
