24 years later: should we expect another upset? Prediction for France vs Senegal - 16.06.2026
On Tuesday, one of the opening matches of the 2026 World Cup group stage will see France take on Senegal. This pairing carries a special history: back in 2002, the Senegalese stunned the reigning world champions at the start of the tournament, and now France faces another test against an opponent who has long since outgrown the label of mere dark horse.
France: championship-level attack and Mbappé unleashed from the center
France arrives at the tournament as one of the top favorites, riding a wave of convincing results against high-caliber opponents. Victories over Brazil (2-1), Colombia (3-1), and Northern Ireland (3-1) have more than made up for a slip-up against Ivory Coast - a wake-up call that Didier Deschamps' staff likely took to heart right before the big kick-off.
The intrigue in attack revolves around Kylian Mbappé: recent matches suggest he might start wide on the left, with Ousmane Dembélé occupying the central zone. Michael Olise, fresh off a hat-trick against Northern Ireland, could take the right flank, while Deschamps has plenty of creative options just behind the striker - Cherki, Doué, or Barcola.
Senegal: a respected status, but recent tests raise concerns
Senegal has long moved past the stage of being a one-hit wonder and is now rightly seen as a candidate to advance from the group. At the 2022 World Cup, the "Lions of Teranga" reached the round of 16, and in recent years, they've managed to beat top teams, including Brazil and England, in friendlies.
However, just before the tournament, Papa Thiaw's side left more questions than answers. A 2-3 defeat to the USA exposed defensive frailties, while a goalless draw with Saudi Arabia highlighted their struggles against compact blocks - issues that could prove far more costly against France.
Probable lineups
- France: Maignan, Hernandez, Upamecano, Saliba, Koundé, Rabiot, Tchouaméni, Mbappé, Cherki, Olise, Dembélé.
- Senegal: Mendy, Diatta, Sarr, Nyakate, Diouf, Camara, Diarra, Gueye, Sarr, Jackson, Mané.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Senegal has already beaten France at a World Cup: back in 2002, the African side secured a 1-0 victory in the tournament opener.
- France has scored at least two goals in 14 of their last 15 matches, with the only exception being the game against Ivory Coast.
- Senegal conceded three goals against the USA in one of their most recent friendlies, but prior to that, played out a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia.
- France has scored at least two goals in regular time in 7 of their last 8 World Cup matches.
- France has not taken more than 6 corners in regular time in 12 of their last 15 World Cup matches.
Deschamps remembers 2002: prediction for France vs Senegal
Senegal has what it takes to trouble France with their athleticism, the pace of Mané and Jackson, and their pressing during transitions. However, recent games have shown that the "Lions of Teranga" defense is no longer as rock-solid as it once was - surviving 90 minutes against the likes of Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, and deep-lying threats will be a tall order. France might have some lapses in focus, but their attacking depth is immense, and their tactical flexibility up front means they can change the game’s rhythm even without substitutions. Senegal will likely carve out a chance or two and could get on the scoresheet, but the favorites should be expected to claim all three points in their opener.
