Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves prediction: match preview and lineups
The Matchday 33 clash of Spain’s La Liga between Real Madrid and Alaves will take place on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, at the legendary Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:30 CET. Both teams enter this fixture with contrasting mindsets: Real are eager to bounce back after recent setbacks in the league and Champions League, while Alaves are locked in a desperate fight for survival.
Match preview
Real, now under the guidance of Alvaro Arbeloa, are enduring a tough stretch of the season. Sitting second in the table (70 points from 31 games), they have all but lost their grip on the title race after a recent 1-1 draw with Girona, and their Champions League exit at the hands of Bayern has added further psychological pressure. For Los Blancos, the match against Alaves is about prestige and a chance to show their fans that the season is far from over. The attacking leaders, including Kylian Mbappe, will be fully motivated to secure three points at the Bernabéu.
On home soil, Real are traditionally aggressive, but due to squad issues (injuries to Courtois and Rodrygo, illness for Asensio), the lineup could be experimental. Still, the gulf in quality between the two teams remains immense. Arbeloa will surely demand an early goal from his men to settle nerves from the outset and restore the confidence that has been noticeably shaken in recent European and domestic outings.
Alaves, by contrast, are battling for top-flight survival, sitting 17th with 33 points. Their recent form has been wildly inconsistent: last round, they played out a thrilling 3-3 draw with Real Sociedad, a result that showcased both their fighting spirit and major defensive frailties. Alaves have been conceding heavily, and a trip to the Bernabéu will be a stern test—any point here would be nothing short of a heroic result.
Tactically, the visitors will almost certainly opt for a deep, defensive approach in Madrid, banking on counter-attacks and set pieces—areas where Lucas Boyé, already with 11 goals this season, poses a threat. However, against a powerful Real side playing on the front foot, it will be a monumental challenge for Alaves to sustain the tempo for the full 90 minutes. At present, the visitors simply lack the resources to contain Madrid’s star-studded attack on their own patch, so their main objective will be damage limitation and staying focused until the final whistle.
Ultimately, this is a classic clash of two worlds: Real must restore pride, while Alaves are fighting for their lives. Despite Madrid’s personnel issues, the huge gap in class makes a home win the logical outcome. For Arbeloa, it’s a test of psychological resilience; for the visitors, it’s a character trial where even a minor success would be miraculous.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Real have not won in their last four matches.
- Eight of Real’s last nine games have seen over two goals scored.
- Alaves, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last four matches.
- Alaves have conceded in 13 consecutive games.
- In the last ten meetings between these sides, Real have dominated—winning nine, while Alaves have claimed just one victory.
- The reverse fixture earlier this season ended in a 2-1 win for Real.
Probable lineups
- Real: Lunin - Carvajal, Militão, Rudiger, Carreras - Bellingham, Valverde, Tchouaméni - Güler, Vinicius Jr., Mbappe
- Alaves: Sivera - Pérez, Tenaglia, Otto, Parada - Ibáñez, Guridi, Blanco, Lekhedim - Boyé, Martínez
Prediction
Real are overwhelming favorites. Despite their Champions League hangover, Madrid’s quality is simply on another level compared to the underdogs. Alaves will try to cling to possession, but the hosts’ squad depth and individual brilliance should see them through comfortably. Expect Real to settle the contest in the first half and control proceedings until the final whistle. My prediction: Real to win and over 2.5 total goals.
