Lithuania vs Greece. Prediction and bet for the match on September 9, 2025
Lithuania
Greece
EuroBasket has reached the stage where every team starts eyeing the title. Here’s my prediction for the Lithuania vs Greece showdown.
Lithuania
Despite being a small country with a population of less than 3 million, Lithuania’s basketball pedigree is undeniable. The national team is both strong and ambitious, as their tournament results show. In the group stage, they finished second, trailing only the Germans.
They started with a victory over Great Britain—94:70—then demolished Montenegro 94:67. They lost to Germany 88:107, followed by two tough battles against the Scandinavian squads: Finland (81:78) and Sweden (74:71). In the round of 16, Lithuania triumphed in a Baltic derby over Latvia, 88:79. Speaking of star power, Sabonis is missing this tournament for personal reasons, and the team’s sole NBA representative, Valančiūnas, hasn’t had a decisive impact on their play.
Greece
Greece also won four out of five games in the group stage, but managed to claim the top spot. They opened by defeating Italy 75:66, then crushed Cyprus 96:9 and Georgia 94:53. After such a dominant start, their loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina (77:80) came as a surprise. In the final group game, they edged out a strong Spain side 90:86—a result that sent the Spaniards crashing out of the tournament.
The team’s main superstar is Milwaukee Bucks leader Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played in four games, averaging 30 points per outing. In the round of 16 against Israel, Antetokounmpo put up a monster double-double with 37 points and 10 rebounds.
H2H
The teams last met at the 2023 World Cup, where Lithuania cruised to a 92:67 win. However, head-to-head history in basketball isn’t always telling due to frequent roster changes.
Prediction
Greece are rightfully considered the favorites in this matchup. Overall, they’ve looked stronger in this championship, and their only defeat largely came in the absence of their leader. Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently unstoppable, and Lithuania simply doesn’t have a superstar of the same caliber. I’m backing Greece to win with a -5.5 point handicap.
