Can Slovenia seal a play-off spot in Skopje? North Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction – 16.11.2026
On Monday, November 16, 2026, North Macedonia will host Slovenia at the Todor Proeski National Arena in Skopje in the final round of UEFA Nations League B Group 1. Kick-off is scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. The two teams approach the encounter with contrasting ambitions: the hosts are already guaranteed to finish bottom of the group, while Slovenia are fighting to secure second place and a spot in the promotion play-offs.
North Macedonia: Five defeats expose serious defensive problems
North Macedonia have endured a disappointing Nations League campaign under head coach Goce Sedloski. After five matches, the team remain without a point, having scored just once and conceded 12 goals. They have already been confirmed in fourth place and will have to compete in the League B/C play-offs.
Their latest outing brought another defeat, this time 2-1 away to Scotland. Elmin Rastoder scored North Macedonia's first goal of the tournament, briefly bringing his side level, but John McGinn's penalty eventually secured victory for the Scots.
The result once again highlighted the team's biggest weakness: defensive instability. North Macedonia have struggled to contain opponents, particularly when defending transitions and dealing with sustained pressure. They have conceded at least twice in every group match, including a 2-0 defeat against Slovenia in September.
Sedloski still has several experienced players available, including goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski, midfielder Enis Bardhi and attacking midfielder Eljif Elmas. However, the squad has undergone changes, with forward Bojan Miovski omitted from the November selection because of insufficient playing time at club level.
Playing at home provides one final opportunity to restore some pride, but the hosts will need a much more disciplined performance to avoid another defeat.
Slovenia: One victory away from securing second place
Slovenia arrive in Skopje in a considerably stronger position. Boštjan Cesar's side have collected eight points from five matches, recording two victories, two draws and just one defeat. With Switzerland already confirmed as group winners, Slovenia's objective is clear: protect second place and qualify for the promotion play-offs.
Their most recent match ended in a goalless draw against Switzerland, an encouraging result against the strongest team in the group. Slovenia have conceded only three goals throughout the competition and have kept three clean sheets in five matches.
The visitors have already demonstrated their superiority over North Macedonia this autumn, winning the reverse fixture 2-0. They also secured an important 2-1 away victory against Scotland, showing that they can deliver results under pressure.
However, Slovenia are not without personnel problems. Benjamin Šeško and Jure Balkovec are missing through injury, reducing Cesar's attacking and defensive options. The absence of Šeško is particularly significant, although Žan Vipotnik, Aljoša Matko and David Šturm provide alternative attacking solutions.
At the other end, Jan Oblak remains a dependable presence in goal, while Jaka Bijol provides leadership and stability in central defense. Slovenia's disciplined structure should give them another advantage against a North Macedonian side that has struggled throughout the tournament.
Probable lineups
- North Macedonia: Dimitrievski – Ilievski, Mladenovski, Musliu, Alioski – Gashtarov, Bardhi – Churlinov, Elmas, Doriev – Rastoder.
- Slovenia: Oblak – Zaletel, Drkušić, Bijol, Kuzmić, Karničnik – Čerin, Zabukovnik, Matko, Šturm – Vipotnik.
Match facts and head-to-head
- North Macedonia have lost all five Nations League matches, conceding 12 goals.
- Slovenia have suffered only one defeat in five group matches.
- North Macedonia have conceded at least twice in each of their five matches.
- Slovenia have kept three clean sheets in the competition.
- The reverse fixture on September 29 ended in a 2-0 victory for Slovenia.
Slovenia should capitalize on the hosts' struggles: North Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction
The difference between these teams has been evident throughout the group stage. North Macedonia have struggled defensively, lack confidence and have little left to play for beyond restoring pride in front of their supporters.
Slovenia, meanwhile, have a clear tournament objective and considerably more stability. Cesar's team have demonstrated that they can compete with stronger opponents, and their ability to remain compact without sacrificing attacking opportunities should be particularly important in Skopje.
The visitors may find it difficult to create numerous chances without Šeško, but North Macedonia's defensive vulnerabilities provide plenty of opportunities for Vipotnik and his teammates. Slovenia also have an obvious psychological advantage after winning the reverse fixture without conceding.
The hosts could make this a competitive encounter, especially with home support behind them, but Slovenia possess the stronger defensive organization, better recent results and greater motivation. An away victory looks like the most convincing outcome.
Prediction: Slovenia to win.
