Can Athletico's wild run continue? Athletico-PR vs Atlético-MG prediction — 09.10.2026
One of the most interesting fixtures of the 29th round of the Brazilian Serie A will take place at Arena da Baixada, where Athletico Paranaense host Atlético Mineiro. Officially, the match kicks off in Curitiba on October 8 at 20:00 local time, which is already October 9 in Eastern European time. Athletico enter the round in third place with 49 points from 28 matches, while Atlético-MG are seventh with 40 points from 27 games.
Athletico Paranaense: goals are almost guaranteed at the moment
Athletico's recent Serie A matches have followed an extremely entertaining pattern. Odair Hellmann's side beat Bahia 2-1, drew 3-3 with Coritiba, lost 3-1 to Cruzeiro, drew 3-3 with Fluminense and defeated Botafogo 3-2. Both teams scored and at least three goals were produced in each of those five matches.
The main attacking weapon remains Kevin Viveros. The Colombian striker has scored 18 goals in the 2026 Serie A and is expected to be available against Atlético-MG after returning from international duty. His presence is especially important because Athletico have already shown that their aggressive approach can leave plenty of space at the other end.
There are also significant defensive complications. Juan Felipe Aguirre is suspended after collecting his third yellow card, while Gastón Benavídez has been dealing with a calf problem. Aguirre's absence could force Lucas Esquivel into the back three, with Dantas and Carlos Terán among the options to complete the defensive line.
Another unusual factor is the absence of Hellmann from the technical area. The Athletico coach was suspended by the STJD following his dismissal against Bahia and will not be permitted on the bench for this match.
Atlético Mineiro: enough attacking quality to punish an open opponent
Atlético-MG remain under the command of Eduardo Domínguez and continue their pursuit of the teams occupying the Libertadores places. Their recent league results have been mixed: a 1-1 draw with Chapecoense followed a 3-1 victory over Fluminense, while earlier they lost 2-0 away to São Paulo.
The visitors have not been particularly convincing away from Belo Horizonte, winning only four of their first 14 away matches in this Serie A campaign. That makes backing a straight Atlético victory difficult, especially at Arena da Baixada. At the same time, Athletico's recent defensive numbers leave Galo with a realistic chance of scoring.
Domínguez has also had to manage several personnel problems. Goalkeeper Everson has been sidelined with a foot injury, while Ruan, Reinier and Victor Hugo have all recently appeared among the medical concerns. On the positive side, Kevin Castaño, Ángelo Preciado, Alan Franco and Alan Minda were expected to return from international duty in time for the trip to Curitiba.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Both teams have scored in each of Athletico's last five Serie A matches.
- Each of Athletico's last five league games has produced more than 2.5 goals.
- Athletico have scored 12 and conceded 12 across those five matches.
- Atlético-MG have won only four of their first 14 away league games this season.
- Atlético-MG won the first league meeting between these teams in 2026, beating Athletico 2-1 at Arena MRV.
Prediction
Athletico deserve respect at home and have the stronger league position, but their recent matches have been far too open to trust them defensively. Aguirre's suspension adds another question to a back line that has conceded in five consecutive league fixtures, while the absence of Hellmann from the technical area is another complication.
At the same time, the return of Viveros gives the hosts their main source of goals, and Atlético-MG have enough attacking quality through players such as Cuello, Bernard, Minda and Cassierra to exploit the spaces Athletico regularly leave behind.
The first meeting of the season also produced goals at both ends, and the current profile of the hosts points toward another match in which neither defense keeps complete control.
Prediction: Both teams to score — Yes.
