Is it just Rodri's absence? Key reasons behind Man City's struggles
Six games without a win, a three-match losing streak in the Premier League. The Manchester club is in a real crisis. But this isn’t about United, whose failures have become almost expected; this is about City, something no one saw coming. And next up is a match against Liverpool, a team that has been dominating this season.
Dailysports breaks down the key reasons behind Manchester City’s poor start to the season.
Rodri's Absence
It may sound overly simple, but the impact of Rodri on Pep Guardiola's team is truly immense. And this isn’t just empty talk—it's backed by solid statistics.
Manchester City’s record since the start of last season:
- With Rodri in the lineup: 53 matches, 39 wins, 13 draws, 1 loss.
- Without Rodri: 26 matches, 14 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses.
As you can see, City almost never loses with Rodri in the team. The Ballon d'Or winner serves as the crucial link between defense and attack, much like Sergio Busquets did under Guardiola at Barcelona.
It was rather symbolic when, just before the match against Tottenham, Rodri presented his Ballon d'Or award at the Etihad, and immediately after that, City suffered their heaviest Premier League defeat under Guardiola.
Lack of an Alternative to Rodri
It’s not just Rodri’s absence; there’s no player in Manchester City’s squad who can come close to performing the same role.
According to the club's sports department, Calvin Phillips was supposed to be that player, but issues with his weight and psychology have prevented the former England international from making an impact at City.
Later, the club signed Matheus Nunes from Wolverhampton, but he too has failed to fill Rodri’s shoes.
There’s a lot of speculation about Man City possibly signing Adam Wharton from Crystal Palace or Martin Zubimendi from Real Sociedad in January. Zubimendi has been a solid replacement for Rodri in the Spanish national team, and Wharton is of a similar profile. Perhaps City could solve this problem temporarily.
Injuries and Lack of Rotation
Another fairly obvious yet critical reason behind Manchester City’s struggles. At the start of the season, the reigning Premier League champions suffered from an unusually high number of injuries. As Guardiola said, at one point the team played without four defenders and two holding midfielders. And this is no exaggeration.
However, Guardiola is partially to blame for the team’s inability to cope with the injury crisis. Among all Premier League teams, City makes the fewest substitutions. In most matches, the Spanish coach only makes 2-3 changes, despite the fact that teams can now make five substitutions.
There were numerous occasions when City had a comfortable lead and could have given minutes to youth academy players. But City’s academy players, at best, got a chance only in League Cup matches.
As a result, City found themselves in a situation where, for their match against Sporting, they had to field a very young Simpson-Pusey in central defense, a player who had never even played a minute at that level. The result? A hat-trick from Viktor Gyokeres, with at least two of the goals directly due to Simpson-Pusey’s errors.
Manchester City’s academy is one of the best in England, and players like Cole Palmer deserve a chance, but those chances aren’t being given.
Man City’s Defensive Decline
According to data from Understat, this season, Guardiola's team is conceding an average of 1.5 expected goals per game (xG), not counting their attacking stats. In comparison, last season this figure stood at just 0.9 xG.
This +0.6 xG increase is the biggest defensive drop among all Premier League teams when comparing this season to last.
This is partly due to Rodri's absence, but we also can't overlook the significant decline in Kyle Walker’s form, as the player, due to his age, can no longer maintain his previous level.
Who Else Is Going to Score, Apart from Haaland?
Erling Haaland, with 12 goals, remains not only Manchester City's top scorer but also the top scorer in the Premier League. There’s nothing surprising about this. What is surprising is that City’s next highest scorers in the Premier League are Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol, with just 3 goals each.
- Also read: Liverpool vs Manchester City: kick-off time, how to watch, Live stream - December 1, 2024
Phil Foden, who was named Premier League Player of the Season last year, has yet to score or assist in 9 matches this season. Kevin De Bruyne is again spending more time recovering than playing, and the flanks, with players like Savinho, Doku, and Grealish, have stopped being effective.
Haaland’s form has also declined. In his last 7 matches, the Norwegian has scored just 2 goals, despite having more than 8 xG worth of chances. It is quite symbolic that Haaland’s slump coincided with his advice to Mikel Arteta to be more modest.
Off-Field Issues at the Club
The ongoing trial over 115 Financial Fair Play violations, rumors of a new UK law that could force Manchester City to change owners, and constant media criticism—this all inevitably affects the players’ state of mind.
Manchester City players are living in complete uncertainty regarding their futures. What should they do if the court sends the club to the Championship?
The one thing that's clear is that Pep Guardiola will remain the head coach of the team, as he has extended his contract.
Season Outlook for Man City
The team’s future prospects depend heavily on the next match. A loss to Liverpool would leave them 11 points behind the leader, which would make it incredibly difficult to close that gap. Therefore, for the "Citizens," it’s crucial to pick up points at Anfield.
In the Champions League, despite recent setbacks, Manchester City remains one of the main favorites. It’s expected that City will be active in the transfer market this winter.
Luis Torres
Dailysports's expert
