Will Montella take revenge on his historic homeland? Turkey vs Italy Nations League match prediction
On Monday, September 28, 2026, at 20:45 CET, the UEFA Nations League top-flight clash of Matchday 2 will take place at the boiling-hot “Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu” in Bursa, as the Turkey national team host four-time world champions Italy.
For the hosts’ manager, Vincenzo Montella, this showdown carries a highly personal significance: beating his native Italy while in charge of Turkey in front of the Turkish fans is the main emotional objective of the current international break.
- Read also: Can Germany Return to Winning Ways Against Greece? Germany vs Greece Prediction | September 27, 2026
Italy have been one of Turkey’s most difficult opponents throughout football history: the Turks have never beaten Italy in an official match, recording four draws and nine defeats. Ahead of Euro 2024, the teams played out a hard-fought friendly in Bologna that ended goalless (0-0), but in competitive tournaments the Azzurri have regularly come out on top, as illustrated by their emphatic 3-0 win at Euro 2020 and the 3-2 friendly victory in Konya.
Turkey
Turkey are experiencing a golden era in terms of their crop of young creative talents. Arda Güler and Can Uzun tear through the half-spaces with their unorthodox dribbling, while İsmail Yüksek sets the tempo. In Bursa, Turkey traditionally play with enormous emotional intensity, pressing their opponents aggressively in every area of the pitch.
However, the national team’s defensive line is prone to occasional positional lapses when opponents launch counterattacks, making Turkey’s matches open and fiercely contested.
Italy
The Azzurri continue to refine their structure, relying on a powerful midfield led by Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali. Defensively, the Italians remain strong thanks to their tactical discipline (Mancini, Calafiori), while up front their game plan is built around Moise Kean’s sharp runs in behind and Di Lorenzo’s quick overlaps down the flanks.
Italy know how to weather the hosts’ early pressure in a low-to-mid block and methodically punish the spaces Turkey inevitably leave open in the heat of their attacking moves.
Probable lineups
- Turkey: Bayındır - Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı - Aydin, Özcan, Yüksek, Kadıoğlu - Güler, Uzun, Alper Yılmaz
- Italy: Donnarumma - Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Coppola, Calafiori - Tonali, Barella, Romano - Kean, Cambiaghi, Esposito
Prediction
Keeping Turkey’s attacking unit off the scoresheet in front of their home fans is practically impossible, but the hosts’ defense also regularly allows opponents to create openings in front of goal. My prediction: Both teams to score - yes.
