Will Castellón spoil the favorites’ night again? Prediction for Almería vs Castellón - 09.06.2026
One of the playoff matches for promotion to La Liga will be played on Tuesday at the Juegos Mediterráneos stadium in Almería, where the home side Almería will take on Castellón. The first leg between these two teams ended in a 1-1 draw, which means that every mistake now comes at a premium: the hosts are hoping to capitalize on their home advantage, while the visitors are determined to prove that their impressive run is no fluke.
Almería rely on their status, but lack consistency
Almería come into the return leg of this clash with a mixed record. Rubi’s side have won just one of their last five matches: they beat Real Valladolid 1-0, but then lost 1-3 to Sporting Gijón and 1-2 to Las Palmas, followed by goalless draws with Burgos and a 1-1 with Castellón.
The main hope for the hosts is Sergio Arribas, who has netted three goals in his last five appearances and remains the most creative force between the lines. However, the attacking machine around him doesn’t always run smoothly: Almería have scored just five goals in five matches, and their high number of fouls and cards shows the team often loses control when the opposition ups the tempo.
Castellón arrive not to defend, but to claim their own
Castellón may not boast the bigger names, but their current form is far more convincing. Pablo Hernández’s men are unbeaten in five consecutive matches: in that span, they’ve claimed wins over Eibar (2-1) and Huesca (1-0), and drawn with Cádiz, Ceuta, and Almería.
Crucially, Castellón don’t just sit back without the ball—they know how to build attacks through structure and regularly earn set pieces. With 39 corners in five matches, this is a team that consistently delivers the ball into dangerous areas. Álex Calatrava, with 20 shots in this stretch, remains their main driving force up front, while Fabrizio Brignani adds a threat on set pieces from deep in defense.
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first leg between Castellón and Almería in this playoff phase ended in a 1-1 draw.
- Castellón are unbeaten in five matches, while Almería have won only one of their last five games.
- In the two previous La Liga 2 matches before the playoffs, Castellón beat Almería 4-1 and 5-2.
Prediction
Almería are considered favorites due to their home field, but based on current form, the hosts’ advantage isn’t so clear-cut. Rubi’s team too often plays on a knife-edge: they commit a lot of fouls, pick up cards, and can’t always find a consistent attacking rhythm. In a high-pressure match, this could become a serious issue.
Castellón look more composed and less dependent on a single game plan. The visitors have been in strong form in recent weeks, create plenty of chances from the flanks and set pieces, and their head-to-head record with Almería only adds to their confidence. The main prediction is that Castellón will not lose. An additional option is under 2.5 total goals, as after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, both sides are unlikely to throw caution to the wind.
