Turkey have lost all three matches, while Italy have already thrashed them 4-1: prediction for Italy — Turkey

Italy vs Turkiye prediction Photo: beinsports.com / Author unknown
UEFA Nations League A (Round 4) 05 oct 2026, 14:45
- : -
International, Bologna, Stadio Renato Dell'Ara

The UEFA Nations League fourth-round match between Italy and Turkey will take place on October 5 at the Renato Dall'Ara Stadium in Bologna. Italy have collected four points from three matches and sit third, while Turkey have lost every game and remain bottom without a single point.

Italy: the team have improved significantly after a disastrous start

Roberto Mancini's second spell in charge of the national team began with a 2-0 defeat by Belgium, but Italy quickly raised their level. First, the team thrashed Turkey 4-1, before drawing 1-1 with France in Paris.

Against France, the Italians largely held on thanks to Gianluigi Donnarumma, who made seven saves. Mancini may once again turn to young players in attack, while Pio Esposito continues to build his scoring record at international level with confidence.

Turkey: three defeats and serious absences

Vincenzo Montella's team have yet to pick up a single point. A 1-0 defeat by France was followed by a 4-1 loss to Italy and a 3-0 defeat against Belgium.

The situation is made even more difficult by the suspensions of Arda Güler and Barış Alper Yılmaz. In addition, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are unavailable due to injuries, leaving the visitors' attacking line significantly weakened.

Match facts and head-to-head record

  • Italy have won three of their last four matches against Turkey.
  • Turkey have lost all three of their matches in the current Nations League campaign.
  • In their previous head-to-head meeting, Italy defeated Turkey 4-1.

The visitors' absences could prove decisive: prediction for Italy — Turkey

Italy are gradually finding their form and followed their emphatic win over Turkey with a solid performance against France. Mancini's team look far more composed than they did in the opening round and should enjoy even greater control of the game at home.

Turkey head into the match in extremely difficult shape, with their losing streak compounded by the absence of several key attacking players. Without Güler, Yılmaz, Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, the visitors will find it particularly difficult to create chances.

Prediction on game Italy Win & Total over 1.5
Odds: 1.6
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