Time to correct mistakes. UEFA Nations League match prediction: Belgium vs Turkey
Belgium and Turkey will meet on Friday, October 2, in the third round of the UEFA Nations League in League A. The match will be played at the Maurice Dufrasne Stadium in Liège, with kickoff scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. I am backing goals in this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Turkey have conceded first in each of their last six matches.
- Belgium have kept a clean sheet in just one of their previous six matches.
- Turkey have beaten Belgium on Belgian soil just once — in a friendly in 2004.
- Both teams have scored in 9 of the 11 meetings between these sides.
Belgium
Belgium began their latest Nations League campaign with a convincing win over Italy. Mark van Bommel's side travelled to Rome and surprisingly dismantled the hosts, winning 2-0. The result was an excellent start for the new coach, while the Belgians immediately showed that they intend to fight for a place in the quarter-finals.
In the second round, Belgium hosted France. The team kept a clean sheet for a long time and held onto a draw almost until the final whistle. However, in the 88th minute, Michael Olise produced a solo run and secured a 1-0 victory for France. Belgium thus suffered their first defeat of the tournament, although they remained competitive throughout the match.
At the same time, the opening games showed that Belgium have enough resources to compete with the strongest teams in the group. The win over Italy was an important statement, while the match against France highlighted the organisation of their defence. The Belgians have conceded just one goal in two games — and that came right at the death.
Van Bommel's side now return home, where taking all three points again will be crucial. Belgium have three points after two rounds, so a win over Turkey would consolidate their position near the top of the table and keep them in a strong position ahead of the upcoming fixtures.
Turkey
Turkey, by contrast, have made a disastrous start to the group stage. In the opening round, Vincenzo Montella's side hosted France and lost 1-0. Kylian Mbappé scored the only goal, while the Turkish national team were unable to respond.
The situation became even more difficult in the second round. Turkey were once again at home, this time facing Italy, but suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat. Italy scored three goals before half-time, effectively putting the result beyond doubt. Turkey managed only to reduce the deficit after the break, but the hosts could not save the match.
As a result, Turkey have no points after two matches and a goal difference of 1:5. Their defensive performance is particularly concerning: the team have conceded five goals in two games, with three of them coming in the first half against Italy. Montella now needs to find a solution quickly, as the next match will be played away from home.
At the same time, Turkey still have a chance to turn things around. A victory over Belgium would not only earn the team their first points but also reduce the gap to their rivals. However, the Turks will need a far more reliable defensive performance and maximum concentration from the opening whistle — precisely what they lacked against Italy.
Predicted lineups
- Belgium: Lammens, Seys, Mechele, Ngoy, Castagne, Tielemans, Lavia, De Bruyne, Godts, Lukebakio, De Ketelaere.
- Turkey: Çakır, Kabak, Demiral, Çelik, Aydın, Elmalı, Özcan, Kökçü, Güler, Uzun, Yılmaz.
What to bet on?
Based on the opening matches, Belgium look like the more balanced team. They beat Italy away from home and held France to a draw for almost 90 minutes. Turkey, meanwhile, have lost both matches and conceded five goals. The home advantage and the need to bounce back from the defeat to France provide the Belgians with extra motivation, but Turkey have no room for error. My pick is both teams to score.
