Spain vs France prediction, H2H and probable lineups - June 5, 2025
The second Nations League semifinal showdown will take place on Thursday in Stuttgart, where Spain and France will clash at the MHP Arena. Here’s a value bet for the outcome of this high-stakes encounter.
Match preview
Spain arrives at the 2024/25 Nations League semifinal as one of the tournament's most stable and well-drilled sides. Luis de la Fuente’s men cruised through the group stage unbeaten, with their rock-solid defense (just four goals conceded) proving a cornerstone of their campaign. Even in a dramatic quarterfinal against the Netherlands, La Furia Roja showed real grit, winning on penalties after two thrilling draws and a goal-packed period of extra time.
The attacking firepower of the Spaniards is especially worthy of note, with young talents Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal already making decisive contributions at the highest level. Spain is unbeaten in regulation across their last 23 official matches, consistently finding the net first — in fact, they’ve opened the scoring in all of their last seven Nations League games. Despite missing key players like Rodri, Carvajal, and Ferran Torres, Spain’s squad depth has allowed them to weather these absences seamlessly.
France, meanwhile, has reached the semifinals with slightly less impressive results, but remains a formidable force. Didier Deschamps’ squad only made it through the quarterfinals after a penalty shootout against Croatia, having lost the first leg 0-2. Les Bleus also faced a tough group, ultimately clinching top spot thanks to superior tiebreakers.
Despite their elite status, France has suffered three defeats in their last ten official outings, including a semifinal loss at the Euros to this very Spanish side. That said, they’ve shown remarkable resilience after halftime — not conceding in the second half of their last seven Nations League matches. The absence of Griezmann, Camavinga, and Koundé has thinned their ranks, while newcomers like Barcola and Olise are still acclimatizing to this level.
Probable lineups
- Spain: Unai Simón – Marc Cucurella, Pau Cubarsí, Robin Le Normand, Pedro Porro – Fabián Ruiz, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri – Álvaro Morata, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal
- France: Mike Maignan – Théo Hernandez, Ibrahima Konaté, Benjamin Pavard, Malo Gusto – Michael Olise, Manu Koné, Aurélien Tchouaméni – Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, Bradley Barcola
Match facts and head-to-head
- Spain are unbeaten in regulation time in their last 11 Nations League matches
- France have just one win in their last five official head-to-head meetings with Spain
- The “Over 2.5 goals” bet has landed in only two of the last five matches between these sides
Prediction
This clash between two European giants promises to be intensely tactical and fiercely contested. Spain look the more cohesive outfit, showing consistent form and composure in big games — this is their third consecutive Nations League semifinal, and they’ve made the final in each of the previous two attempts. France, meanwhile, are in a mild transition phase, and their defensive instability could be exposed. Our pick: “Spain to win with a (0) handicap” at odds of 1.80.
