Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the fixtures of Premier League matchday 38 will take place on Sunday at St. Mary's Stadium, where local side Southampton will host Arsenal. I'm offering a bet on the outcome of this clash with a solid value.
Match preview
This season's Premier League underdog has long resigned itself to finishing bottom of the table — after 37 rounds, the team has only 12 points and just two wins all campaign. Simon Rusk's squad has been the league's worst both in attack and defense: 25 goals scored, 84 conceded.
The goalless drought has now stretched to three games: a scoreless draw at home to Manchester City, then back-to-back away defeats to Leicester (0-2) and Everton (0-2). Overall, the club hasn't tasted victory in 13 straight Premier League matches — 10 defeats and just three draws.
The Gunners delivered a crucial result in the last round, edging out direct Champions League rivals Newcastle 1-0 at the Emirates. That narrow but hugely significant win secured the Londoners a ticket to Europe's top club competition and also helped them maintain second place in the standings. Mikel Arteta's men finally snapped a three-game winless run in the league, in which they drew twice and lost to Bournemouth (1-2).
The team's defensive stats are impressive — just 33 goals conceded all season, and Arsenal are very likely to finish with the league's best defense. In their last 11 Premier League outings, the Gunners have lost only once, notching up 4 wins and 6 draws.
Probable lineups
- Southampton: Aaron Ramsdale – Jack Stephens, Jan Bednarek, Nathan Wood, Taylor Harwood-Bellis – James Bree, Wellington, Flynn Downes – Mateusz Fernandes, Kamaldeen Sulemana – Tyler Dibling
- Arsenal: David Raya – Miles Lewis-Skelly, Ben White, William Saliba, Jakub Kiwior – Martin Ødegaard, Thomas Partey, Declan Rice – Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka
Match facts and head-to-head
- Arsenal beat Southampton 3-1 in the reverse fixture
- The "Over 2.5 goals" bet landed in three of the last five meetings
- The "Both teams to score" bet came through in three of the last five encounters
Prediction
In the final round, Arsenal take the field without pressure, but even in a relaxed mood their quality is far superior. Southampton are struggling up front and consistently fail to find the net, especially against top opposition. The smart play here is "Under 3.5 goals" at odds of 1.76.
