Rotation should not stop the favorite: Manchester City vs. AEK prediction
The third-round match of the Champions League league phase between Manchester City and AEK will take place on October 20, 2026, at the Etihad Stadium. The hosts have collected three points from their first two matches, while the Greek side also have one win and one defeat. Despite their recent setback against PSG, the English club remain clear favorites for this encounter, especially given AEK’s extremely poor away record in Europe’s premier competition.
Manchester City: a response is needed after PSG
Enzo Maresca’s side suffered a painful 4-2 defeat to PSG at home in the second round of the Champions League, with the visitors firmly controlling large stretches of the match. However, City returned to winning ways in the Premier League, beating Ipswich 3-2. Erling Haaland scored in his eighth consecutive match for the club, although concerns were raised about his physical condition after the game.
Maresca is likely to rotate his squad and could leave Haaland on the bench to avoid risking his attacking leader. The team have also lost Antoine Semenyo for around eight weeks, while the availability of Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes and Nico O’Reilly remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the hosts’ squad depth allows them to maintain a high attacking level, and Phil Foden could even feature as a false nine.
AEK: freshness is there, but the away record is worrying
Marco Nikolic’s team head into the match after a 3-1 defeat to Shakhtar in the second round, which marked the first time since April that AEK had conceded three goals in a competitive fixture. Before that, the Greek club had gone a long time without losing in regular time and opened their Champions League campaign with a 1-0 win over LASK, so the visitors cannot be written off completely.
On the other hand, their record against English clubs makes grim reading: AEK have lost seven of their last eight Champions League matches against English opposition. Their away record in the main competition is even worse — they have never won on the road, recording five draws and 11 defeats. Even with fresh options such as Luka Jovic and Barnabas Varga, the pressure at the Etihad will be far greater than what they are used to.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Manchester City have lost none of their four Champions League matches against Greek clubs.
- AEK have lost seven of their last eight Champions League matches against English teams.
- The Greek club have never won away from home in the main Champions League tournament.
Even without Haaland, the hosts should get the job done: Manchester City vs. AEK prediction
AEK could cause problems with their freshness and the Varga–Jovic partnership, particularly if City once again make defensive mistakes, as they did against PSG and Ipswich. Therefore, a goal for the visitors cannot be ruled out entirely, especially with the hosts likely to name a significantly changed lineup.
Nevertheless, the gap in individual quality, squad depth and home advantage is simply too wide. Even with rotation, Manchester City should control possession, create more chances and gradually break down their opponents’ defense. AEK may respond, but keeping the English side at bay for 90 minutes will be extremely difficult.
