Home advantage should deliver a third win: Liverpool vs. Villarreal prediction
The third-round match of the Champions League league phase between Liverpool and Villarreal will take place on Tuesday at Anfield. The hosts have won both of their opening games and have six points, while the Spaniards have collected three. Liverpool are gradually finding their form after an uneven start to the season, while Villarreal have improved their results but still look significantly weaker away from home than they do on their own turf.
Liverpool: form gradually stabilising
Andoni Iraola's team have won six of their last eight matches in all competitions, losing only to Manchester City during that run. The English side are still unbeaten in the Champions League: they first defeated Atletico Madrid before thrashing LASK 6:3, taking a 4:0 lead as early as the 51st minute. That European success was followed by an important 2:1 Premier League win over Brentford, further confirming that the team have become better at coping with a congested schedule.
At the same time, the situation at Anfield is not yet perfect — Liverpool have managed just two wins, alongside two draws and one defeat, in their five home matches this season. Injuries to Dominik Szoboszlai and Jeremie Frimpong have created an additional problem, although Ryan Gravenberch's return strengthens the midfield, while the attacking group featuring Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola and Cody Gakpo still looks extremely powerful.
Villarreal: progress is evident, but away games remain a weakness
Inigo Perez's team have improved significantly after a disastrous start to the season. Villarreal began the campaign with six matches without a win, but have since managed four victories and suffered just one defeat. The 3:1 win over Napoli in the second round of the Champions League was particularly important, allowing the Spaniards to quickly return to contention after their opening defeat.
However, their away record remains a serious concern. The Yellow Submarine have won only one of their six matches on the road, while suffering defeats in three of their last six away fixtures. Another psychological factor is their poor head-to-head record against Liverpool: the Spaniards have lost their last three meetings, so at Anfield they will have to withstand not only the pressure from the stands but also one of the strongest squads in the tournament.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Liverpool have won both of their opening Champions League matches.
- Villarreal have won just one of their six away matches this season.
- The English side have won their last three meetings with the Spanish club.
The visitors can put up a fight, but the hosts have greater quality: Liverpool vs. Villarreal prediction
Villarreal have become far more organised in recent weeks and have already shown that they can punish serious opponents, as they did against Napoli. However, Perez's team are too inconsistent away from home, and against Liverpool they cannot afford lengthy spells without the ball or mistakes when playing out from the back.
The hosts currently have the edge in terms of recent results, squad depth and attacking quality. The absences of Szoboszlai and Frimpong are a blow, but they should not completely alter the balance of power. If Liverpool avoid the complacency they showed in the second half against LASK, they should control the game and secure a fairly comfortable victory.
