Roma vs Lazio: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 17.05.2026
One of the standout clashes of Serie A’s Matchday 37 will unfold this Sunday at the Stadio Olimpico, where Roma hosts Lazio in a fiercely anticipated city derby. Here’s my pick for the outcome of this showdown: the Giallorossi are still alive in the Champions League race, while the Biancocelesti come into this match fresh off a painful Coppa Italia final defeat.
Roma
Roma have already secured their Europa League spot, but Gian Piero Gasperini’s side clearly has its sights set higher. After a hard-fought 3-2 win over Parma, the Romans remain right in the hunt for fourth place, trailing by just a single point. The Parma match was tense and riddled with controversial refereeing decisions, but these are exactly the kinds of wins that mark teams capable of squeezing out results at the business end of the season.
Squad-wise, Roma look fairly stable ahead of the derby: the only major question mark is over Lorenzo Pellegrini’s fitness. There’s a chance Niccolò Pisilli could start instead of Paulo Dybala, while up front, the main weapon remains Donyell Malen, who has already netted 14 goals since his winter arrival. Another key factor is the derby psychology: Roma haven’t lost to Lazio in five straight Serie A meetings, and with the core Lazio ultras boycotting, the Olimpico could feel even more like home for the Giallorossi.
Lazio
Lazio come into the derby licking their wounds after a 2-0 defeat to Inter in the Coppa Italia final. For Maurizio Sarri’s men, this was the last real chance to salvage their season with a European berth, but the match was controlled by the Milanese, and the Biancocelesti are set to miss out on continental football for the second straight season. There are no real tournament objectives left in the league, but Rome derbies are never short on passion.
Lazio’s biggest issue is the short turnaround after the cup final and the need to rotate in almost every line. Suspended Alessio Romagnoli is definitely out, so Luca Pellegrini is likely to start at left-back in place of Nuno Tavares, while Nicola Rovella should return in midfield. Up front, Sarri might completely refresh his attacking trio, bringing in Pedro, Boulaye Dia, and Matteo Cancellieri, but physical and emotional fatigue will inevitably hang over the Biancocelesti.
Probable lineups
- Roma: Svilar, Hermoso, N'Dicka, Mancini, Wesley, Koné, Cristante, Çelik, Pisilli, Soulé, Malen.
- Lazio: Motta, Marušić, Provstgor, Gila, Pellegrini, Taylor, Rovella, Dele-Bashiru, Cancellieri, Dia, Pedro.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Roma are unbeaten in their last five Serie A derbies against Lazio: three wins and two draws.
- The last eight head-to-head clashes between these sides have all featured under 2.5 total goals.
- Before losing to Inter, Lazio had scored seven goals in three league matches, but after the Coppa Italia final, they’ve had almost no time to recover.
- Roma have not taken more than 6 corners in 6 out of the last 8 home derbies against Lazio in Serie A.
- Roma have received at least 2 yellow cards in each of their last 8 home derbies against Lazio in Serie A.
Prediction
Roma look the more focused and motivated side: Gasperini’s men are still legitimately chasing the Champions League, playing at home, and hold the psychological edge in the derby. The crowd context matters too — with reduced Lazio support, the atmosphere could strongly favor the hosts, who need more than pure emotion, they need a result. Lazio can’t be discounted: Sarri’s side know how to stay compact, close down spaces, and punish mistakes, especially if the opponent opens up too early. But fatigue from the final, Romagnoli’s suspension, and the lack of a tangible league goal make life much tougher for the visitors. My pick: Roma to win and under 3.5 total goals.
