Return after decades and a test for Haaland: prediction for Iraq vs Norway - 17.06.2026
In the early hours of Wednesday, Iraq and Norway will square off in one of the opening matches of the 2026 World Cup group stage. For Iraq, this is their first World Cup appearance since 1986, while Norway return to the world's biggest football stage after a hiatus since 1998 - armed with a new generation that fans at home expect to make history.
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Iraq: Arnold, a low block, and hope to upset another favorite
Iraq have travelled a long road to the World Cup: three qualifying rounds, an intercontinental playoff, and a 2-1 win over Bolivia. Since then, Graham Arnold’s side have played friendlies against Andorra, Spain, and Venezuela: a 1-0 win, an eye-catching 1-1 draw with Spain, and a tough 0-2 defeat that exposed their struggle for consistency.
Iraq’s main asset isn’t their squad, but the tactical expertise of Arnold, who already steered Australia to the 2022 World Cup knockout stage. His team know how to sit deep, absorb pressure, and frustrate favorites: Iraq have taken points from Saudi Arabia, battled South Korea, and stunned Japan at the 2024 Asian Cup.
Norway: the best generation ever, but the heat is a real test
Norway arrive at the tournament boasting perhaps the strongest generation in their history. Under Ståle Solbakken, they won all eight qualifiers, scoring 37 goals - a figure that perfectly captures the scale of expectations surrounding this squad.
However, their preparations weren’t flawless: after beating Sweden 3-1, they drew 1-1 with Morocco, and the heat during their training camp in Greensboro clearly impacted the team’s fitness. But if Martin Ødegaard is in form and Erling Haaland gets the right service, Norway have weapons that can break down even the most stubborn defensive block.
Probable lineups
- Iraq: Hasan Hakim, Doski, Hashim, Sulaka, Sadun, Fardji, Al-Ammari, Iqbal, Qasem, Al-Hamadi, Hussein.
- Norway: Nyland, Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Møller, Berge, Asgaard, Ødegaard, Sørloth, Nusa, Haaland.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Before the World Cup, Iraq beat Andorra 1-0, drew 1-1 with Spain, and lost 0-2 to Venezuela.
- Norway were flawless in European qualifying: eight wins in eight matches, 37 goals scored.
- Erling Haaland has scored in 11 of his last 13 matches for Norway, netting 21 goals during that stretch.
- Norway won by a margin of at least 1.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 World Cup qualifiers.
- Iraq took at least 3 corners in regular time in 12 of their last 13 World Cup qualifiers.
- Iraq received no more than 1 yellow card in regular time in 6 of their last 8 World Cup qualifiers.
Haaland only needs one chance: prediction for Iraq vs Norway
Iraq certainly won’t play open football: Arnold’s side will look to clog the middle, slow the tempo, and force Norway to find solutions through the wings and set pieces. This scenario might work for a while, especially if the heat once again saps Norway’s intensity. But the gulf in attacking quality is hard to ignore. The Ødegaard–Haaland connection, Sørloth’s support, and Nusa’s pace should create enough chances for Norway, while Iraq’s struggling forwards make it unlikely they’ll keep up in a shootout.
