Real Madrid vs Benfica: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 25 February 2026
The second leg of the Champions League playoff round takes place on Wednesday at the legendary Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, where Real host Benfica from Lisbon. After a 1-0 win in the first leg in Lisbon, Los Blancos have only a minimal advantage, keeping the intrigue in this tie alive. Let's take a look at the best bet for this high-stakes clash.
Match preview
Álvaro Arbeloa's side head into the return leg with their spirits somewhat dampened. Over the weekend, Real suffered a 2-1 defeat to Osasuna, conceding the decisive goal in the dying minutes and surrendering their lead in La Liga once again. That slip put an end to a four-match winning streak and injects even more drama ahead of the Benfica rematch.
Injury concerns continue to plague the squad: Bellingham is struggling with a hip issue, Militão is still recovering from a muscle injury, Heysen is doubtful, and Ceballos is sidelined long-term. Rodrygo will miss out due to suspension. Against this backdrop, Vinícius Júnior's role becomes even more crucial – the Brazilian has scored in four consecutive matches, netting five goals during this stretch. After the controversial incident in Lisbon, he could well be the difference-maker at the Bernabéu.
Benfica, on the other hand, come into this fixture riding a wave of confidence. In the Portuguese league, the Eagles breezed past ABC (3-0), marking their fifth win in the last seven matches across all competitions. Their only defeat in that span came in the first leg against Real (0-1), where they looked well-organized and stayed in contention until the final whistle.
However, squad issues might take their toll. Prestianni is suspended after a clash with Vinícius, Aursnes and Sudakov are not fully fit, and João Veloso has been out for a long time. Another key factor: José Mourinho will be absent from the touchline due to a ban. Under these circumstances, Benfica will have to rely on grit, compactness, and rapid transitions into attack.
Probable lineups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Carreras, Alaba, Asensio, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Tchouaméni, Güler, Valverde, Vinícius Júnior, Mbappé.
- Benfica: Trubin, Bah, Otamendi, Silva, Dahl, Rios, Barrenetxea, Lukebakio, Silva, Schjelderup, Pavlidis.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Six of the last eight encounters between these teams have seen over three goals scored.
- Both teams have found the net in six of their last eight head-to-head meetings.
- The first leg in Lisbon ended with a narrow 1-0 win for Real Madrid.
Prediction
A slim advantage means Real can't afford to play for a draw, and their recent defeat to Osasuna has only heightened their focus. Benfica are capable of causing problems, but the absence of Mourinho and mounting squad issues make their task at the Bernabéu even tougher. Expect an open game, but with the edge going to the hosts from Madrid.
