Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the standout clashes of the fifth matchday in the Copa Libertadores group stage will take place on Thursday at the Campeón del Siglo stadium in Montevideo, where local side Peñarol host Paraguay’s Olimpia Asunción. Here’s a value pick for the outcome of this encounter with an attractive odds offer.
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Match preview
Peñarol come into this matchup against Olimpia in excellent form, riding an impressive seven-game unbeaten streak. Under Diego Aguirre, the Uruguayans have looked solid in the Copa Libertadores, collecting 7 points from four rounds and conceding just two goals — the best defensive record in Group H. Their recent 3-0 away win over San Antonio Bulo Bulo further solidified their standing in the group, and the upcoming home fixture at the Campeón del Siglo provides a further edge for the hosts.
However, things haven’t always been smooth at home — Peñarol endured a six-game winless run (four losses and two draws) before notching victories in their last two home outings. The team is also missing three players, albeit not from the core starting eleven. Still, conceding only two goals in four Copa Libertadores fixtures is a testament to the reliability of their backline and goalkeeper.
Olimpia Asunción, meanwhile, face a daunting scenario ahead of their fifth group stage outing. After four games, the Paraguayans are still searching for their first win, having picked up just two points while conceding eight goals. The situation has not improved domestically either, with a recent 0-3 defeat to General Caballero deepening their internal crisis. Fabián Bustos’ side have struggled to organize defensively and are prone to costly errors in their own half.
To make matters worse, Olimpia will be without five key players for the Peñarol clash, including striker Derlis González, who is suspended. This significantly undermines their attacking threat. Given their current group position and the necessity of a win, the visitors will be forced to take risks, but their recent form and personnel issues cast serious doubt on the success of such a plan.
Probable lineups
- Peñarol: De Amores, Milans, Herrera, Leo Coelho, Oliveira, Sosa, Pérez, Umpiérrez, Fernández, Baez, Silvera
- Olimpia Asunción: Olveira, Alfonso, López, Ortiz, Espínola, Rojas, Ledesma, Zabala, Fernández, Pratto, Abreu
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first leg ended in a 0-0 draw
- The teams have played 4 Copa Libertadores matches; only one saw over 2.5 goals scored
- Both teams scored in just one of those four encounters
Prediction
Peñarol look like clear favorites, and bookmakers are offering odds around 1.90 for a home win. We believe Peñarol have a strong chance to secure their place in the next round, and our pick here is a “Peñarol win.”
