Monza vs Empoli prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 18 May 2025
One of the fixtures of Serie A's 37th round will take place on Sunday at the U-Power Stadium, where local side Monza host Empoli. I’m backing a bet on goals in this clash, with solid odds for success.
Match preview
Last round, under Alessandro Nesta’s guidance, Monza finally snapped a catastrophic 15-match winless streak by defeating Udinese 2-1 away. It marked the first time in five games that Monza managed to score, and their first victory since January. However, the result has no tournament significance—Monza remain rooted to the bottom of the table and have already secured relegation from Serie A.
Home form continues to be their Achilles’ heel—just eight points, the worst tally in the league. Moreover, Monza haven’t won at home in their last seven matches: five defeats and two draws. Even after their recent win, the team remains in a tough psychological state, finishing out the season with no hope of survival.
Empoli, under Roberto D’Aversa, finally ended their own 20-match winless run last round, beating Parma 2-1 at home. Despite the win, they again failed to keep a clean sheet—Empoli have conceded in 23 of their last 24 Serie A matches, underlining serious defensive issues. Still, the table situation remains intriguing: with 28 points, Empoli sit second from bottom, just one point adrift of the safety of 17th place.
Their away form is also a concern: Empoli haven’t won any of their last ten Serie A away games, collecting just three points from draws and suffering seven defeats. Additionally, only Monza have conceded more away goals, making Empoli one of the league’s most vulnerable sides on the road.
Probable lineups
- Monza: Samuel Pizzignacchio – Thomas Palacios, Arvid Brorsson, Andrea Carboni – Samuele Birindelli, Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro, Alessandro Bianco, Gaetano Castrovilli, Giorgos Kyriakopoulos – Gianluca Caprari, Omari Forson
- Empoli: Devis Vasquez – Luca Marianucci, Mattia Viti, Ardian Ismajli – Emmanuel Gyasi, Liam Henderson, Alberto Grassi, Giuseppe Pezzella – Jacopo Fazzini, Sebastiano Esposito, Liberato Cacace
Match facts and head-to-head
- The reverse fixture ended in a 0-0 draw
- The “Over 2.5 goals” bet has landed in two of the last five meetings
- The “Both teams to score” bet has come through in just one of the last five encounters
Prediction
This is a clash between two sides clearly lacking attacking sharpness—throughout the season, both Monza and Empoli have consistently struggled to convert chances. Only Lecce (25 goals) have scored fewer in Serie A this campaign, with Monza next (27) and Empoli just ahead (29). Don’t expect a goal fest here—this match is likely to be a pragmatic affair, focused on grit and caution. Our bet: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76.
