Mexico vs Costa Rica: who will take first place in the group?

Mexico vs Costa Rica prediction Photo: https://x.com/miseleccionmxen
CONCACAF Gold Cup (Round 3) 22 june 2025, 22:00
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In the early hours of Monday, June 23rd, the final group stage match of the CONCACAF Gold Cup will see Mexico face off against Costa Rica. The clash kicks off at 4:00 AM Central European Time, and I’ve got a betting tip lined up for this encounter.

Mexico vs Costa Rica: match preview

Both national teams have already secured their spots in the CONCACAF Gold Cup playoffs. Mexico and Costa Rica confidently handled their group stage matches, earning well-deserved places in the quarterfinals—though their journeys weren’t without challenges. Mexico opened with a 3-2 victory over the Dominican Republic. In the second round, things were smoother: the Mexicans struck twice early in the second half against Suriname and claimed a 2-0 win. It’s worth noting Mexico are the defending champions, having lifted the trophy two years ago.

Costa Rica, a perennial playoff contender at the Gold Cup, once again asserted themselves as a regional powerhouse and consistent quarterfinalist. The last time Costa Rica failed to make the playoffs was back in 1998, but their most recent title dates all the way back to 1989. This campaign, Costa Rica kicked off with a true thriller against Suriname: they led 2-0, then trailed 2-3, but pulled off a dramatic 4-3 win with a decisive goal in the 13th minute of stoppage time. They also staged a comeback victory over the Dominican Republic—winning 2-1 after being down 0-1.

Both teams are level on six points. Mexico currently top the table thanks to a superior goal difference. The winner will advance to the playoffs as group leaders, though a draw is enough for Mexico to claim first place.

Match facts and head-to-head

  • Mexico have won their last three matches, while Costa Rica are on a four-game winning streak.
  • Mexico have scored in six consecutive matches; Costa Rica’s scoring run stands at four games.
  • 40% of Costa Rica’s games end with both teams finding the net.
  • In their most recent encounter, Mexico defeated Costa Rica 2-0. Costa Rica’s last win over Mexico dates back to 2013.

Probable line-ups

  • Mexico: Malagón; Reyes, Montes, Vázquez, Gallardo; Alvarado, Álvarez, Ruiz, Vega; Jiménez, Jiménez
  • Costa Rica: Navas; Mitchell, Faerron, Calvo; S Mora, Aguilera, Galo, Alcocer, J Mora; Martínez, Ugalde

Prediction

Mexico boast a higher caliber of talent, which is often decisive in matches like this. Costa Rica will no doubt put up a fight, but I believe Mexico will come out on top. I’m backing them to win at odds of 1.61.

Prediction on game Win Mexico
Odds: 1.61
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