Karagumruk vs Basaksehir: Prediction, H2H and probable line-ups — February 4, 2026
On Wednesday, February 4, the Ataturk Olympic Stadium will host an Istanbul derby as Fatih Karagumruk takes on Basaksehir in the group stage of the Turkish Cup. Dive into our comprehensive team analysis and match prediction below.
Match preview
Fatih Karagumruk is enduring one of the toughest spells in its recent history. In the Turkish Super Lig, the team sits rock bottom in 18th place, with just two wins and nine points from 20 rounds. The current form of the Red-Blacks is dismal: a string of defeats, including recent losses to Göztepe (1-2) and Galatasaray (1-3), has the club’s management seriously considering a change in direction. Their Turkish Cup campaign is only slightly better—they’re fifth in the group, having collected two points from two matches. For the hosts, this city derby in the cup is a chance to salvage some pride in front of their fans after a disastrous season.
Fatih Karagumruk’s tactical setup revolves around trying to control possession through the midfield. However, poor finishing and constant defensive lapses on the flanks have left the team vulnerable. Expect the coaching staff to field a rotated squad for this cup match, aiming to conserve energy for the relegation battle in the league.
Basaksehir, on the other hand, is in flying form. Under Nuri Sahin, the Grey Owls have surged up to sixth in the Super Lig and are displaying enviable consistency. January was a particularly strong month, with four straight league wins—including a commanding 3-0 victory over Kayserispor and a hard-fought 2-1 win over Fatih Karagumruk just two weeks ago. Basaksehir looks like a well-balanced team, blending the experience of veterans with the audacity of young talents.
The visitors’ playing style is built on high intensity and rapid transitions from defense to attack. Basaksehir traditionally sets ambitious targets in the cup, and the current squad allows them to compete on multiple fronts without sacrificing quality.
Probable line-ups
Karagumruk: Grbic, Esgaio, Kadioglu, Balkovec, Kurukalip, Kranevitter, Ozcan, Serginho, Larsson, Kalayci, Babychka
Basaksehir: Sengezer, Sahiner, Duarte, Opoku, Operi, Kemen, Gunes, Fayzullayev, Shomurodov, Harit, Da Costa
Match facts and head-to-head
- In their last five meetings, each side has registered two wins and there has been one draw
- Karagumruk has lost four of its last five matches
- Basaksehir is unbeaten in seven games: four wins and three draws
Prediction
The hosts are in dreadful form, turning in poor performances week after week. It’s unlikely that the cup setting will change that, so I see Basaksehir as the clear favorite. My prediction: Basaksehir to win at 1.7
