Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris prediction: can the Lithuanians pull off a miracle at Poljud? - 13.08.2026
On August 13 in Split, the return leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round will take place between Hajduk and Žalgiris.
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The match at Poljud Stadium is set to kick off at 21:00 Central European Time. After the first leg, the intrigue in this tie has all but vanished: just a week ago, the Croatians thrashed their opponents 5-2 in Vilnius.
To be frank, Žalgiris find themselves in a very tough spot ahead of the return fixture. The Lithuanians need to overturn a three-goal deficit on the road—and against a side that has already shown just how lethal it can be in attack. In the first match, Hajduk found the net five times, and at times their superiority looked overwhelming. Yes, Žalgiris managed to respond twice, but defensively the team left far too much space for their rivals.
For Hajduk, the situation is nearly perfect. Gonzalo Garcia’s men can afford not to go all-out from the first whistle and instead calmly control the tempo. With a 5-2 aggregate lead, the Croatians just need to avoid conceding an early goal that could bring the Lithuanians back into the tie. That said, the hosts can't afford to relax: one quick strike from Žalgiris could inject some nerves and force Hajduk to ramp up their intensity. Gonzalo Garcia remains at the helm for the Split club.
However, Hajduk’s start to the domestic league has been less than convincing. In the opening round, they fell 1-2 to Varaždin, and in the second, they drew 2-2 at home against Istra. So, just one point from two matches for the Croats. On the flip side, their European campaign has been far more upbeat: after an early exit to Pafos in Europa League qualifying, Hajduk shifted focus to the Conference League and now stand just one step away from the play-offs.
Žalgiris, before facing the Croatians, overcame Dinamo Tbilisi in the second qualifying round, winning the return leg 7-2 and taking the tie 7-5 on aggregate. But pulling off a similar comeback against Hajduk will be a much tougher challenge. Now the Lithuanians need to score at least three times—ideally without conceding. After shipping five in the first leg, that task looks almost impossible.
Another crucial factor is the Poljud stadium itself. At home, Hajduk will benefit from tremendous support, and after their big win in Vilnius, the fans' spirits will be sky-high. The Croatians don’t need to stage another goal fest, so I expect a more pragmatic approach from the hosts.
In my view, Žalgiris will have no choice but to go forward and take risks—there’s simply no alternative. That, in turn, will leave space for Hajduk to launch swift counterattacks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the hosts find more chances to score, though another rout seems unlikely: a three-goal cushion allows Hajduk to play with far more composure.
All in all, I don’t expect a sensational comeback here. Hajduk did almost all the hard work in Vilnius and should calmly see the job through. Žalgiris will surely try to go out with a bang, but the gulf in class and the first-leg advantage are simply too significant.
My prediction: over 2.5 total goals.
