Can Kairat pull off another home comeback from 0-1? Prediction for Kairat vs Levski — 11.08.2026
On Tuesday, August 11, the Turkestan Arena will host the second leg of the Champions League third qualifying round, as Kairat welcomes Sofia’s Levski. After the first match, the advantage lies with the Bulgarian champions: Levski secured a 1-0 win in Sofia, thanks to Serginho’s goal in the 90+2nd minute. The winner of this tie will face Greek side AEK in the playoff round.
Kairat: déjà vu scenario
Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side finds itself in a tricky, but far from hopeless, position. In fact, in the previous qualifying round, the Kazakh champions navigated almost the exact same scenario. Kairat lost 0-1 away to Omonia, then won the home leg by the same score before advancing on penalties. Prior to that, the Almaty club defeated Sutjeska twice—2-1 at home and 2-0 away.
Kairat’s domestic campaign is also going strong. The team sits second in the league with 45 points from 20 matches, trailing only Ordabasy. They’ve suffered just one defeat in the league, with a goal difference of 39:14. Their scheduled match against Zhenis on August 8 was postponed, giving the squad valuable recovery time ahead of the Levski rematch.
The main concern remains the state of the attacking line. Before the first leg, Jorginho—the club’s top scorer last season with eight goals in 19 league matches—was on the absentee list. As of writing, there’s still no confirmation of his return for the second leg. In Sofia, Urazbakhtin deployed Edmilson, Marc Gual, and Oiva Jukkola up front, with Olzhas Baibek, Jaakko Oksanen, and Gustavo Mendonsa in midfield.
The defeat in Bulgaria stung all the more because of the timing of the goal. Kairat held a 0-0 draw until stoppage time and seemed well-positioned heading into the home leg, but Serginho’s late strike changed the entire outlook. Now, simply managing the tempo won’t be enough—the hosts must score.
Levski: perfect first-leg score and strong form
Julio Velázquez’s men are progressing through Champions League qualifying unbeaten. In the first round, the Bulgarians drew 1-1 away at Borac and then crushed them 4-0 at home, before overcoming Universitatea Craiova with a 1-0 win in Sofia and a 2-2 draw in Romania. Now, they’ve added a 1-0 win over Kairat to their run.
Between the two legs against Kairat, Levski played a league match in Bulgaria. On August 7, Velázquez’s side beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 at home: David Kusso scored in the sixth minute, and Reynaldo sealed the result in stoppage time. The coach was able to rotate his squad somewhat, with Serginho, Gašper Trdin, and Reynaldo starting on the bench.
Levski’s personnel situation is far from perfect. Before the first leg, Radislav Kirilov, Stipe Vulic, Mustafa Sangare, and Olivier Kamdem were all out injured, while Akram Buras and Maicon were doubtful. Neither Buras nor Maicon featured in the starting lineup against Lokomotiv, either.
Still, Levski hold the key advantage—the 1-0 scoreline means there’s no need to force the issue. The visitors don’t have to open up or trade attacks. They can drop deeper, force Kairat to push forward, and look for opportunities on the counter.
Probable lineups
Based on the first leg and the most recent matches, the starting XIs might look like this. Official lineups will be confirmed shortly before kickoff.
Kairat: Anabekov — Mrynskiy, Martynovich, Lucas Africo, Luis Mata — Baibek, Oksanen, Mendonsa — Gual, Edmilson, Jukkola.
Levski: Vutsov — Aldair, Dimitrov, Makoun, Centelles — El-Mubarak, Trdin — Oko-Flex, Serginho, Everton Bala — Reynaldo.
Match facts
- The first leg ended in a 1-0 win for Levski, with the only goal scored in the 90+2nd minute.
- In this qualifying campaign, Kairat already lost the first leg 0-1 (to Omonia), then won the return 1-0 and advanced on penalties.
- Levski are unbeaten in all five of their Champions League qualifiers so far this season.
- The Bulgarian side beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 three days after their first game against Kairat.
- Kairat sits second in the Kazakhstan Premier League and has lost only one of 20 league matches.
The hosts must take risks: Kairat vs Levski prediction
The result of the first leg simplifies the betting choice to some extent. For Kairat, another cautious performance won’t suffice—down 0-1 on aggregate, they’ll have to ramp up the pressure and push for victory, at the very least in regular time.
Bookmakers seem to be underestimating the hosts. The odds for a Kairat win are around 2.50, with a draw at roughly 3.40 and a Levski win at about 3.00.
Yes, the Bulgarians have looked rock-solid and remain unbeaten in this qualifying campaign. But the second leg is set to play out very differently. Levski hold a comfortable advantage and will naturally focus on protecting their lead, while the hosts need to seize the initiative.
Kairat already has recent experience turning this kind of tie around against Omonia, are in great domestic form, and have had extra recovery time after their league match was postponed. With odds better than 2.00, betting on the home side is risky but justified based on the value offered.
Prediction: Kairat win.
