Germany vs Italy prediction, H2H and probable lineups — March 23, 2025
Leo Peterson
Dailysports's expert
Translated by the editors
On March 23, 2025, the Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund will host the return leg of the Nations League quarterfinal between Germany and Italy. I propose a bet on one of the teams.
Preview
In the first match, the Germans achieved a comeback victory at San Siro (2-1), turning the game around in the second half. Thanks to goals from Kleindienst and Goretzka, both assisted by Kimmich, Julian Nagelsmann's squad moved a step closer to the tournament's semifinals.
Previously, the German national team confidently advanced to the Nations League playoffs, finishing first in their group ahead of the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Die Mannschaft accumulated 14 points, five more than their closest pursuer, and their performance in this tournament further confirmed the strength and stability of Julian Nagelsmann's team.
Particularly impressive is the team's defensive statistics: over six group stage matches, the Germans conceded only four goals while scoring 18. But the true fortress for the national team has been their home ground — 100% of the points gained, with a goal difference of 13-0. After the disappointment of the home European Championship, Germany continues to instill fear in opponents, demonstrating reliability and iron discipline.
Following a disastrous Euro, the Italian national team confidently navigated their Nations League group. The Azzurri finished second, losing the top spot to France only on goal difference, which highlights the high quality of the Italians' play. Having exchanged away victories with the French, the Italians secured three wins and one draw in the remaining four matches against Belgium and Israel. Notably, the Italians have excelled away from home, achieving a 100% record with 9 points and a goal difference of 6-2.
The Italians have long been renowned for imposing their style of play on opponents, and their tactical prowess, discipline, and unyielding character make the Azzurri a challenging opponent for any team. Now, after the defeat in the first encounter, all these qualities will be crucial. However, overcoming Germany on their turf is an ultimate test, requiring not only skill but also a flawless game plan and a bit of luck.
Probable lineups
- Germany: Baumann, Kimmich, Raum, Rüdiger, Tah, Groß, Goretzka, Sané, Musiala, Amiri, Kleindienst
- Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Bastoni, Di Lorenzo, Politano, Udogie, Tonali, Rovella, Barella, Raspadori, Kean
Match facts and H2H
- Germany's last defeat in regular time dates back to 2023. In a friendly match in Vienna, the Germans lost to Austria 0-2.
- The Italian national team has recently been showcasing high-scoring football. In six of their last seven matches, the "over 2.5 goals" bet has been successful.
- Germany traditionally remains unbeatable at home. In six of their last eight home matches, Die Mannschaft has celebrated victory.
- The head-to-head history between the two teams is rich with draws. The teams have shared the spoils 11 times, highlighting their roughly equal level of competition. However, in terms of total victories, Italy still holds the edge with a 4-3 lead.
Prediction
No matter how you look at it, ignoring Germany's impressive home statistics is impossible. Five consecutive matches without conceding casts doubt on Italy's chances of success, and 18 goals scored in the group stage mean Donnarumma and company should prepare for a real test. In this form, Die Mannschaft looks like the clear favorite for the match, even after their triumph at San Siro. I consider a bet on Germany to win at odds of 1.74 a logical choice.
