Fresh confidence against recent history: Paderborn vs Stuttgart prediction – 28.10.2026
SC Paderborn and VfB Stuttgart meet at the Home Deluxe Arena on Wednesday, October 28, in the second round of the DFB-Pokal. The teams already faced each other at the same stadium in the Bundesliga earlier this month, when Stuttgart claimed a 2-0 victory, but the circumstances ahead of the cup rematch look considerably different.
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Paderborn: confidence is growing at the right moment
Ralf Kettemann’s newly promoted side responded well to their defeat against Stuttgart. Paderborn followed the 0-2 loss with a 2-2 draw away to Werder Bremen and then produced one of their most mature performances of the season, beating Hamburg 1-0 at home thanks to Rayan Philippe’s late winner.
The result against HSV was particularly encouraging because Paderborn controlled long periods of the match. They had significantly more possession, created the clearer chances after the break and eventually received their reward in the 88th minute.
Kettemann has several attacking options available. Steffen Tigges offers a physical presence, Stefano Marino has regularly featured from the start, while Philippe and Marvin Pieringer give the coach different alternatives during the match. Santiago Castaneda has also become an important figure in midfield and was one of Paderborn’s most dangerous players against Hamburg.
There are still personnel concerns. The latest official update listed Timur Gayret, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Marcel Hoffmeier, Sebastian Klaas and Oliver Batista Meier among the unavailable players. Gabriel Vidović is another player to monitor after he was withdrawn at half-time against Hamburg with a knock.
Stuttgart: plenty of attacking quality, but defensive stability is missing
Sebastian Hoeneß and Stuttgart return to Paderborn only 18 days after winning here in the Bundesliga. That performance showed exactly why VfB enter this cup tie as favorites: they were patient, survived Paderborn’s stronger spells and eventually decided the game through their superior quality.
However, Stuttgart’s results since then have been far less convincing. They lost 1-0 away to Hamburg and then suffered a 3-2 home defeat against Borussia Mönchengladbach despite taking an early lead through Ermedin Demirović. Between those matches, VfB also drew 1-1 with Atlético Madrid in the Champions League.
The attacking options remain impressive. Demirović, Deniz Undav, Chris Führich, Jamie Leweling, Dzenan Pejcinovic and Bilal El Khannouss give Hoeneß enough depth to rotate without significantly reducing the threat in the final third.
The main question is at the other end of the pitch. Stuttgart have conceded in six of their seven Bundesliga matches this season, and the defeat to Gladbach again highlighted their vulnerability when opponents manage to break the first line of pressure.
Josha Vagnoman is sidelined with a hamstring injury, while Nikolas Nartey has also been dealing with a muscular problem. Tiago Tomás, Justin Diehl and Dan-Axel Zagadou were still working their way back towards full fitness in Stuttgart’s latest official personnel update.
Possible lineups
- Paderborn: Noll – ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen – Curda, Obermair – Ulrich, Castaneda – Baack – Philippe, Tigges.
- Stuttgart: Seimen – Assignon, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstädt – Karazor, Stiller – Leweling, Undav, Führich – Demirović.
Match facts and head-to-heads
- Stuttgart beat Paderborn 2-0 at the Home Deluxe Arena on October 10.
- Stuttgart have won all three previous DFB-Pokal meetings between the clubs.
- Paderborn are unbeaten in their last two Bundesliga matches, drawing 2-2 with Bremen and beating Hamburg 1-0.
- Stuttgart have lost their last two Bundesliga matches.
- Paderborn eliminated Phönix Lübeck 4-2 in the first round of the cup.
- Stuttgart started their DFB-Pokal campaign with a convincing 4-0 victory over Hansa Rostock.
Paderborn should create more problems this time
Stuttgart still have the stronger squad and more individual quality, and their 2-0 league victory in Paderborn cannot simply be ignored. Hoeneß has enough attacking options to exploit spaces whenever the hosts commit numbers forward.
But this rematch could develop differently. Paderborn have gained confidence since the first meeting, produced a strong second half against Bremen and then deservedly beat Hamburg. At home, Kettemann’s team should approach a knockout match with considerably more aggression, especially knowing they have already seen Stuttgart’s system at close range.
At the same time, Stuttgart’s recent defensive performances do not inspire complete confidence. They continue to create chances and possess enough quality to score themselves, but keeping Paderborn quiet for a second time in less than three weeks could be more difficult.
A cup match should also become increasingly open if the first goal arrives early. Paderborn have enough physicality and attacking depth to contribute, while Stuttgart’s offensive quality makes it difficult to imagine the visitors remaining scoreless.
Prediction: Both teams to score — Yes.
