Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the fixtures in the fifth round of the Copa Libertadores group stage will take place on Thursday at the Norberto Tito Tomaghello Stadium, where the local side Defensa y Justicia will host Ecuadorian outfit Universidad Católica. I’m backing a goals bet in this clash, with an enticing set of odds.
Match preview
Heading into this decisive Copa Sudamericana fixture, Defensa y Justicia find themselves in a tough spot. The Argentine club enter the fifth round without a single win to their name, having collected only three draws and one defeat so far. In their most recent outing, Defensa y Justicia traveled to face Vitória, securing a 1-1 draw. As a result, with three points from four matches, the Argentines sit at the bottom of their group.
Such statistics fall well short of the expectations of both fans and pundits, and domestically the team’s form has been just as inconsistent. In the Apertura, the “Hawks” failed to break into the top eight of their zone, and their winless streak now stretches to 11 matches (six losses and five draws). Under these circumstances, a victory over their Ecuadorian rivals is not just a matter of pride, but vital to keeping their hopes of advancing to the next round alive.
Ecuador’s Universidad Católica, meanwhile, are in a much more favorable position. The team has all but secured progression from the group, having amassed 10 points from four matches (three wins and one draw). Their strong continental form has given them plenty of confidence, but they have no intention of taking their foot off the gas in this upcoming away clash.
With a draw guaranteeing top spot in the group and a direct ticket to the Round of 16, the visitors are expected to play pragmatically, aiming to control possession and slow down the tempo to minimize risk. However, away fixtures remain a frailty for the Ecuadorians: just one win in their last seven matches on the road (three defeats and three draws) is a stat that surely worries the coaching staff.
Probable lineups
- Defensa y Justicia: Bologna E., Cannavo E., Aguilera E., Delgado R., Soto A., Perez K., Gutierrez C. (C), Gonzalez L., Gonzalez F., Osorio A., Togni G.
- Universidad Católica: Romo R., Anangonó G., Canga L., John Chancellor, Romero Padilla D. A., Cacciabue J., Moreno L., Londoño A., Diaz M., Diaz I., Palacios B.
Match facts & head-to-head
- Both teams have seen the “Both teams to score” bet land in each of their last five matches
- In the reverse fixture, Universidad Católica won 3-1 at home
- The “Over 2.5 goals” bet has won in four of Universidad Católica’s last five games
Prediction
Bookmakers are siding with the hosts for this one, offering odds of around 1.70 on their victory. However, our pick is “Both teams to score” at 1.92—an option that looks well worth considering.
