Raphael Durand
Dailysports's expert
One of the clashes of Matchday 5 in the Copa Libertadores group stage will take place on Thursday at the Estadio Monumental in Lima, where Universitario will host Ecuadorian side Barcelona Guayaquil. Here’s a bet on goals in this encounter with solid chances of success.
Match preview
Peruvian giants Universitario approach this crucial fifth-round Copa Libertadores fixture in less than ideal form. Since the return of Uruguayan coach Jorge Fossati, the team has lost its stability, suffering two defeats in their last three matches. Particularly painful was the recent 0-1 loss to Alianza Atlético, which snapped an impressive home unbeaten streak of over two years in the national league.
Despite this downturn, Universitario remains one of Peru’s most consistent squads, leaving hope for a positive result in the upcoming match. The team sits bottom of Group B, having collected just 4 points from 4 games. Their sole win came away at Barcelona (1-0). Notably, in the Peruvian league, the club holds first place, though they share the top spot with Melgar, who have an inferior goal difference.
Ecuadorian outfit Barcelona find themselves in a tricky situation ahead of their clash with Universitario, despite leading their domestic championship. Under Segundo Castillo’s guidance, the team has disappointed fans in recent Copa Libertadores outings, losing to River Plate (2-3) and Universitario (0-1). Their troubles are compounded by personnel issues: Barcelona are missing four players due to injury, including key defender Alex Rangel.
Moreover, Barcelona have yet to claim an away victory in this year’s Libertadores, casting doubt on their readiness for such a decisive match. Offensive struggles also persist, with just three goals scored in four Libertadores fixtures—far from enough to challenge for a knockout stage berth.
Probable lineups
- Universitario: Britos S., Ancajima J., Corzo A., Dulanto G., Costa B., Murrugarra J., Rivera J., Di Benedetto M., Diego Churín, Vélez J., Carabalí J.
- Barcelona Guayaquil: De Arruabarrena I., Vargas U., Chala A., Vallesilla G., Campi G., Arroyo D., Quiñones Ruiz D. R., Solano S., Oyola B., Cortés Caicedo G. J., Rivero O.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the first round, Universitario beat Barcelona away 1-0
- The "Both teams to score" bet has never won in three head-to-head meetings
- No more than two goals have been scored in any of their three encounters
Prediction
Historically, Barcelona SC hold a slight edge in direct meetings with Universitario, but in all three matchups, both teams have never found the net in the same game. Given the heightened pressure, Castillo is likely to focus on defense and look to strike on the counterattack. Our pick for this match: Under 2.0 goals at odds of 1.85.
