Leo Peterson
Dailysports's expert
Corinthians
Palmeiras
On March 28, 2025, the return leg of the Brazilian Paulista final series will take place at the Neo Química Arena in São Paulo, where Corinthians will face Palmeiras. I suggest betting on goals in this match.
Preview
The final of the São Paulo State Championship (Paulista) began with an unexpected result. In the first match, Corinthians secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Palmeiras at Allianz Parque.
The final score barely reflects the flow of the match. Palmeiras dominated throughout, taking 22 shots on goal and accumulating 1.4 expected goals (xG). Meanwhile, Corinthians managed only three shots, with just one on target, and their total xG was a mere 0.11.
Notably, Palmeiras has held the Paulista champion trophy for three consecutive seasons and has only missed out once in the last five years. However, after losing the first match, their position is under threat. Now, Abel Ferreira's team needs to secure an away win to keep their hopes alive for a fourth consecutive championship and reaffirm their status as the hegemon in São Paulo.
This season, Corinthians has been unbeatable at home, suffering no defeats at the Neo Química Arena. Moreover, Palmeiras' only away setback in the current Paulista campaign occurred at this stadium, where "Timão" claimed a convincing 2-0 victory.
Probable lineups
- Corinthians: Hugo Souza, Mateusinho, Torres, Henrique, Angileri, Carrillo, Garro, Martinez, Romero, Depay, Alberto
- Palmeiras: Weverton, Rocha, Murillo, Mikael, Piquerez, Rios, Martinez, Estevão, Raphael Veiga, Torres, Vitor Roque
Match facts and H2H
- Over their last 15 home matches, Corinthians has been impressively prolific, scoring at least two goals in each game.
- The team is confident at home: their last four matches at the Neo Química Arena ended in victories for the hosts.
- Palmeiras, on the other hand, consistently finds the net away from home, scoring in each of their last ten away games.
- Interestingly, the last three away games involving Palmeiras have been high-scoring, with the "over 2.5 goals" bet hitting in each.
- The head-to-head history at Corinthians' home ground remains evenly matched. In the last six matches here, each team has won twice, with two games ending in draws.
Prediction
Palmeiras has no room for error—they must score and win to keep their trophy hopes alive. At the same time, Corinthians is incredibly strong at home, consistently delighting fans with high-scoring performances. Considering the tournament situation and both teams' statistics, a bet on "both teams to score" at odds of 1.9 seems promising.
