Can the Scots spring a surprise in Lisbon? Prediction for the Europa League match Benfica vs Hearts
On August 6, Lisbon will host the first leg of the Europa League third qualifying round, where Benfica welcomes Scottish side Hearts. Here’s my take on the outcome and goal tally for this clash.
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Head-to-head and key stats
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last seven home matches.
- Hearts have lost all three of their official matches this new season.
- The Scots have managed just one win in their last nine away fixtures.
- The sides have only met twice before, with Benfica celebrating victory on both occasions.
The Eagles began their Europa League qualification journey in the second round, facing Swiss side St. Gallen. The first leg was a tough outing and ended in defeat, but at home, Benfica bounced back in style, routing their opponents 5-0 to cruise into the next stage. The star of the return leg was Vangelis Pavlidis, who netted four goals.
The domestic season in Portugal hasn't kicked off yet, meaning Benfica's official matches are limited to European competitions. Nevertheless, the team is looking increasingly confident as they gain match fitness, and the demolition of St. Gallen at home was proof that their attacking prowess remains formidable.
Benfica’s squad underwent further changes this summer, with the club focusing on targeted reinforcements while maintaining the core of the team. Much is expected from the Ukrainian duo Anatoliy Trubin and Georgiy Sudakov, who are becoming key figures in the lineup, along with Pavlidis, who has already hit the ground running this season.
At home, Benfica traditionally play with maximum aggression and aim to settle two-legged ties in the first match. That’s why the hosts are likely to set a high tempo from the first minute, seeking to establish a comfortable lead before heading to Scotland.
Hearts approach this match on the back of a disastrous start to their season. In Champions League qualification, the Scottish side lost twice to Austria’s Sturm Graz — 0-4 away and 0-2 at home — crashing out of Europe’s top competition with a 0-6 aggregate defeat.
The team did create chances, especially in the return leg in Edinburgh, but wasteful finishing and defensive lapses proved costly once again. After last season’s success, their Champions League return turned into a resounding fiasco.
The Scottish Premiership campaign also got off to a rough start for Wouter Vrancken’s team. In their opening fixture at Aberdeen, Hearts led for much of the match thanks to a goal from Oisín McEntee, but surrendered the lead late on. The hosts equalised in the 90th minute, and in stoppage time Kevin Nisbet converted a penalty to hand Aberdeen a dramatic 2-1 victory.
So, heading into the tie with Benfica, Hearts have suffered three consecutive official defeats with a combined goal difference of 1:10. While the team occasionally shows decent organisation, the results point to serious problems both in defence and in converting chances.
What’s the smart bet?
Benfica clearly outclass their opponents in almost every department: squad depth, individual skill, European pedigree, and attacking quality. After their emphatic win over St. Gallen, the Eagles come into this match in high spirits and will surely try to settle the tie in Lisbon. My pick: a home win and under 4.5 total goals.
