Can Sabah punish Dortmund's recent problems? Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund prediction – 20.10.2026
Sabah FK
Sabah will host Borussia Dortmund at the Baku Olympic Stadium on Tuesday, October 20, in Matchday 3 of the Champions League league phase. Both teams have collected three points from their opening two matches, but they arrive at this clash in very different circumstances: Sabah are enjoying a historic European campaign, while Dortmund need a response after three games without a victory in all competitions.
Sabah: confidence is growing after two statement victories
Valdas Dambrauskas' side have already exceeded many expectations in their first Champions League campaign. Sabah's league-phase debut ended in a heavy 4-0 defeat away to Manchester United, but their reaction was impressive: the Azerbaijani champions beat Slavia Prague 2-0 in Baku to record their first victory in the main stage of the competition.
That result was no isolated success. Sabah followed it with a 4-0 away win over Gabala in the domestic league, meaning they come into the Dortmund game after two consecutive victories without conceding. They also lead the Azerbaijani championship, confirming that the team's strong European run has not damaged their domestic form.
Home form is perhaps the biggest reason Dortmund should be careful. Including qualifying, Sabah have won all five of their Champions League home matches this season. They have already beaten AGF 4-0 and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 5-2 during qualification before shutting out Slavia Prague in the league phase. Sabah are comfortable playing without dominating possession, defending in a compact shape and then using the speed of Kaheem Parris, Veljko Simić and Joy-Lance Mickels in transition.
The hosts also have relatively few personnel concerns. UEFA lists no confirmed absentees, although Aliyev is doubtful with a hamstring problem. That gives Dambrauskas the opportunity to field something close to his strongest available lineup.
Borussia Dortmund: quality is obvious, but the attack has stalled
Dortmund started their Champions League campaign with a 3-2 victory over Villarreal, but their momentum has disappeared since then. Niko Kovač's team lost 1-0 away to Bodø/Glimt in the second round and have since been held to a goalless draw by Union Berlin in the Bundesliga.
BVB are now winless in three matches in all competitions. More concerning is the fact that they have failed to score in their last two games. Kovač openly acknowledged the problem before the trip to Baku, demanding quicker combinations, more precision and more shots from his players in the final third. At the same time, he made Dortmund's objective perfectly clear: BVB consider themselves the favourites and are travelling to Azerbaijan for three points.
Serhou Guirassy remains the main reference point in attack, with Maximilian Beier, Ethan Nwaneri, Joey Veerman and Jobe Bellingham providing creativity around him. Dortmund's individual advantage is substantial, but Sabah's defensive organisation means the visitors may have to be patient rather than expecting an easy evening.
Konstantinos Karetsas has not travelled after suffering a ligament injury in his foot against Union Berlin. Long-term absentees Emre Can and Giannis Konstantelias also remain unavailable, while the rest of Dortmund's travelling squad is ready for the match.
Probable lineups
- Sabah: Pokatilov; Zedadka, McCarthy, Solvet, Puchacz; Lepinjica, Rakhmonaliev, Du Queiroz; Parris, Simić; Mickels.
- Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Veerman, Bellingham, Svensson; Beier, Nwaneri; Guirassy.
Dortmund should create chances, but Sabah are dangerous enough to respond
The difference in individual quality clearly favours Dortmund, and Kovač's team should eventually create enough opportunities to score in Baku. After two consecutive matches without a goal, the German side have too much attacking talent for that sequence to continue indefinitely.
However, backing Sabah to contribute to the scoring also looks reasonable. Dambrauskas' side have won every Champions League home game they have played this season, scored twice against Slavia Prague and arrive after putting four past Gabala. They have shown that they are comfortable attacking space against stronger opponents and should get opportunities if Dortmund push numbers forward.
The visitors remain favourites to take all three points, but Sabah's confidence and excellent home record make a one-sided contest far from guaranteed. A 1-2 or 1-3 type of game looks realistic, with both sides having enough attacking weapons to find the net.
Prediction: Both teams to score — Yes.
