Can Montella save his national team from disaster? Nations League prediction: Italy vs Turkey
On Monday, October 5, 2026, at 20:45 CET, Italy will host Turkey in a matchday-four fixture of the UEFA Nations League elite division (League A, Group A) at the Renato Dall'Ara Stadium in Bologna.
Just one week ago, the teams met in Bursa, where Italy handed Vincenzo Montella's side a painful 4-1 thrashing. Following their subsequent 0-3 defeat to Belgium, Turkey found themselves on the brink of a tournament abyss, while the Squadra Azzurra are confidently racing toward victory in the group.
On September 28, 2026, Italy dismantled the Turkish national team in Bursa. Historically, Turkey have never beaten Italy in an official match, while the aggregate score in their last three meetings in UEFA competitions is a crushing 10-2 in favor of the Squadra Azzurra.
Italy
Italy have looked in excellent physical shape at the start of their autumn campaign. In the away clash with Turkey, the Azzurri settled the outcome by the 27th minute, scoring three unanswered goals through Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi and Michael Kayode, before young forward Francesco Pio Esposito added another in the second half.
In midfield, Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Fagioli set a high tempo, while Gianluigi Donnarumma's reliability has minimized the danger around his goal. At home in Bologna, the Azzurri will play with freedom and from a position of strength.
Turkey
For Italian coach Vincenzo Montella's team, this Nations League campaign is turning into a nightmare: three defeats in three matches (France 0-1, Italy 1-4, Belgium 0-3) and eight goals conceded.
Turkey create plenty of opportunities (20 shots against Belgium), Arda Güler is willing to take the game by the scruff of the neck, and Barış Yılmaz imposes himself in physical battles. However, whenever possession is lost in midfield, the back three of center-backs (Bardakcı, Demiral, Çelik) regularly falls apart and makes glaring positional errors.
Probable lineups
- Italy: Donnarumma - Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori - Tonali, Frattesi, Fagioli - Kean, Pio Esposito, Esposito
- Turkey: Çakir - Bardakcı, Demiral, Çelik - Kadıoğlu, Aktürkoğlu, Elmaz, Yüksek - Aydın, Güler, Alper Yılmaz
Prediction
The hosts' superior quality, tactical solidity and recent 4-1 victory away from home clearly highlight the current gap between the teams. In Bologna, Italy should claim all three points with confidence. My prediction is an Italy win.
