Alaves vs Girona: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 23 February 2026
One of the fixtures of La Liga's Matchday 25 will unfold on Monday in Vitoria-Gasteiz at Mendizorrotza Stadium, where Alaves host Girona. The home side is hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone and desperately need points, while the Catalans are looking to build on their recent momentum after a sensational victory over Barcelona. For this clash, I'm backing a bet on the total goals, factoring in both teams' current form.
Match preview
Alaves sit 14th, just two points clear of the drop zone, making every game under Eduardo Coudet feel like a cup final. They've collected seven points from their last four outings, including a 1-1 draw against Sevilla, which highlights their fighting spirit. However, with only 21 goals in 24 rounds, their attack is among the weakest in the league – a major limiting factor for the team.
The return of Jonny Otto should add stability to the defense, but injuries continue to limit rotation options. Alaves have taken 18 points from 12 home games, though two defeats in their last three matches at Mendizorrotza are a worrying sign. The team aims to stay compact and disciplined in midfield, focusing on minimizing mistakes.
Girona, in 12th, enjoy a more comfortable position – 29 points and a three-point cushion over their closest pursuer. The 2-1 win over Barcelona was a massive emotional boost, and over the last seven rounds, the Catalans have won four times. Still, their away form remains inconsistent, and Michel's side tend to pick up fewer points on the road.
Squad absences are another concern: Roca is suspended, while Unai, Portu, van de Beek and other rotation players are out injured. Despite this, the core led by Blind and Tsygankov maintains the team's structure, and ball control remains Girona's trademark. Girona won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season, but a walkover in Vitoria is far from guaranteed.
Probable lineups
- Alaves: Sivera, Pacheco, Garces, Castro, Tenaglia, Blanco, Ibanez, Alena, Perez, Boye, Martinez
- Girona: Gazzaniga, Reis, Blind, Rincon, Martinez, Beltran, Martin, Tsygankov, Lemar, Gil, Vanat
Match facts and head-to-head
- In five of the last six head-to-head meetings, only one team found the net.
- Four of the last meetings between these sides have featured no more than one goal.
- Alaves have earned 18 points from 12 home matches this season.
Prediction
Stylistically, this is a showdown between two cautious sides: Alaves avoid risks due to league pressure, while Girona play pragmatically on the road. The head-to-head history also points to a cagey affair. Expect a tense match with few clear-cut chances.
