Ajax vs Olympiacos prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups - January 28, 2026
One of the fixtures of the final, eighth round of the Champions League group stage will take place on Wednesday at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam, where the home side Ajax will face off against Greek powerhouse Olympiacos. I’m offering a prediction on the outcome of this clash, which comes with promising odds for success.
Match preview
The Dutch side have been teetering on the edge of elimination this European season: with six points, Ajax sit 32nd and must win – ideally by a large margin – to keep their playoff hopes alive. After five consecutive defeats, Ajax pulled off a gutsy comeback win in Villarreal (2-1) to keep their campaign going.
Their weak spot is clearly the defense: 19 goals conceded in seven rounds, without a single clean sheet. Particularly worrying is their home form: Ajax have not picked up a single point at home in the Champions League this season. Still, even with these issues, they remain capable of finding the net and maintaining attacking momentum. Moreover, they have just one loss in their last 15 European encounters with Greek sides.
The visitors currently sit 24th – the last spot granting a ticket to the playoffs. A win guarantees their progression, while a draw leaves them relying on other results. Olympiacos beat Bayer (2-0) in the last round and, for the first time since 2015, have notched two straight Champions League victories.
The squad is nearly at full strength: El Kaabi has returned and Yaremchuk has recovered. However, Olympiacos’ away form remains shaky, with the team rarely scoring on the road. That said, they’ve lost just once in their last six matches against Dutch clubs, giving them added confidence heading into this decisive fixture.
Probable lineups
- Ajax: Jaros, Gaaei, Bouwen, Baas, Wijndal, Reger, Mokio, Klaassen, Gloukh, Godts, Dolberg
- Olympiacos: Tzolakis, Costinha, Retsos, Piola, Ortega, Mouzakitis, Hezze, Rodinei, Chiquinho, Gelson Martins, El Kaabi
Match facts and head-to-head
- Ajax have lost only one of their last 15 European fixtures against Greek clubs.
- Olympiacos have suffered just one defeat in their previous six meetings with Dutch sides.
- In six direct European encounters between these clubs, both teams have claimed two wins and drawn twice.
Prediction
Ajax have no margin for error: they must win or their European campaign is over. Their opponents are strong but inconsistent away from home, and the Amsterdam atmosphere could tip the balance. I predict the hosts will seize the moment and deliver their best home performance of this tournament. Given that both teams desperately need a victory, the optimal bet is “Both teams to score” at odds of 1.60.
