Wow! Manchester United should be fourth in the Premier League table. Why aren't they?
Manchester United's position in the Premier League table tells a very different story from their underlying statistics.
Details: According to Opta's Expected Points table, Manchester United should be sitting fourth in the Premier League after five matchdays. However, the Red Devils currently occupy 12th place, eight positions below their expected ranking. The statistics suggest that Michael Carrick's side have not collected as many points as their performances and the quality of their chances would indicate.
The explanation lies partly in United's attacking statistics. According to Opta, Manchester United lead the Premier League in total shots with 113 and touches in the opposition penalty area with 182. However, the team have converted just 7.1% of their attempts into goals.
Expected points are calculated using statistical models that assess the quality of chances created and conceded in each match. They estimate how many points a team would typically collect based on those opportunities rather than the actual final scores. Therefore, fourth place in this alternative table does not guarantee that United deserved to win every match in which they dropped points.
It is worth noting that Manchester United have collected just five points from their opening five Premier League matches, recording one win, two draws and two defeats. This is their joint-lowest points tally at this stage of a Premier League season, matching their record from the 2014/15 campaign.
Reminder: Historic failure. Manchester United equal unwanted club record
Steven Perez
Dailysports's expert
