Ahead of the playoffs: The main favorite for the World Cup has been named

After the conclusion of the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, analysts assessed the chances of the remaining teams to claim the title. According to The Athletic's projections, the main favorite to win the tournament is the French national team.

Didier Deschamps' squad confidently advanced through the group stage, collecting the maximum number of points. Argentina and Mexico also achieved perfect records, but the analytical model gives the French the highest probability of ultimate success—21%.

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Argentina are considered the second most likely contender for the trophy, with a 17% chance of victory. Spain rounds out the top three favorites at 16%. Other leading contenders include England (14%), Portugal (6%), and Belgium (3%).

At the same time, most of the playoff participants are given only a slim chance of triumph. Fourteen teams were each given less than a 1% probability of winning the World Cup.