Will the rookie's momentum stop the Swabians' attack? Bundesliga prediction: Paderborn vs Stuttgart
On Saturday, October 10, 2026, at 15:30 CET, Paderborn 07 will host Champions League participants Stuttgart at the Home Deluxe Arena in a Matchday 5 clash in the German Bundesliga.
Paderborn head into the showdown on an emotional high after a confident 3-1 victory over Hoffenheim. Meanwhile, Sebastian Hoeneß's Swabians will look to turn their significant edge in individual quality into three points and return to the league's leading pack.
Stuttgart have historically been one of Paderborn's most difficult opponents: in five official meetings, the hosts have never beaten the Swabians, with Stuttgart recording four wins and one draw. The teams' previous encounter, in the German Cup, ended in a hard-fought 2-1 away victory for Stuttgart.
Paderborn
The East Westphalians have shown that they can make the most of their rare chances: against Hoffenheim, Ralf Kettemann's side delivered clinical finishing, sending three goals into the net.
At home, the team lines up compactly in a 3-5-2 formation, actively using the flanks through Raphael Obermair and Laurin Curda. Nevertheless, Paderborn's average attacking threat remains modest (0.78 expected goals, or xG), while their defense often lacks the individual tenacity required against the league's top attacks.
Stuttgart
The international break came at exactly the right time for Stuttgart: the team have had a chance to reset after a couple of setbacks and are ready to unleash their trademark high-intensity press. The Swabians generate enormous pressure in the final third (1.89 expected goals, or xG).
Chris Führich, Bilal El Khannouss and Maximilian Mittelstädt regularly unsettle opponents' defenses from the flanks, while Angelo Stiller poses a constant threat with late runs into the box. The visitors' only concern is their occasional loss of concentration at the back, which has seen Stuttgart concede seven goals in their last five matches.
Probable lineups
- Paderborn: Noll - Ter-Horst, Scheller, Hansen - Curda, Ulrich, Castaneda, Vidović, Obermair - Pieringer, Marino
- Stuttgart: Seimen - Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstädt - Prömel, Stiller, Undav - El Khannouss, Führich, Pejčinović
Prediction
Paderborn will find their moment at home after scoring three against Hoffenheim, while Stuttgart regularly concede away from home (the “both teams to score” bet has landed in six of the Swabians' last seven matches). My prediction: both teams to score - yes.
