Will Bologna avenge February's 95th-minute drama? Serie A match prediction: Parma vs Bologna
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, at 18:00 CET, Parma will host Bologna in a Serie A Round 11 clash at the “Ennio Tardini” stadium in Parma.
This regional derby between two clubs from Emilia-Romagna is traditionally marked by fierce competition and intense tactical battles.
Parma are embroiled in a difficult battle in the bottom half of the Serie A table. Their main problem is a lack of attacking output: the team averages just 0.8 goals per match. In the final third, the hosts rely on the technical ability of Adrián Bernabé, Emanuele Valeri’s runs down the flank, and Mateo Pellegrino’s physical presence in the opposition box.
On home turf, Parma set up in a compact, well-organized defensive shape led by Alessandro Circati, looking to hit on the counter and threaten from set pieces. However, sustained positional pressure from top opponents regularly exposes gaps in the holding midfield area.
Bologna, meanwhile, are battling for a place in the top eight and a spot in European competition. The team boasts a well-balanced squad: captain Lewis Ferguson and the experienced Remo Freuler provide the steel in midfield, while Riccardo Orsolini and Jonathan Rowe create danger from the flanks.
Up front, Thijs Dallinga and Santiago Castro offer plenty of variety. The goalkeeping department, led by Poland international Łukasz Skorupski, delivers a high level of reliability when dealing with shots from distance.
Bologna are expected to take territorial control and dominate possession from the opening whistle, enjoying around 54–58% of the ball while methodically overloading the flanks through the forward runs of full-backs Miranda and Zortea. Parma will respond with a compact 5-3-2, meeting the visitors in a mid-block and attempting to cut off the channels for Ferguson’s line-breaking passes.
It is worth noting that the teams’ previous derby at “Renato Dall'Ara” in February 2026 ended in a dramatic 1:0 victory for Parma, thanks to Cristian Ordoñez’s goal in the 90+5th minute of a match that also featured dismissals on both sides (red cards for Pobega and Troilo). That painful result should give the “Rossoblù” extra motivation to claim full revenge at the “Ennio Tardini”.
What should you bet on in this clash?
The mathematical probability that at least one of the teams will fail to score stands at 57%. Parma’s modest attacking record—0.8 goals per 90 minutes—makes this one of the most reliable markets. My prediction is: both teams to score — no.
