Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups - 24 January 2026
One of the marquee fixtures of La Liga's 21st round takes place this Saturday at the Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal, where the local side will host Real Madrid. I’m backing an outcome in this clash that comes with strong chances of success.
Match preview
Villarreal have truly transformed in La Liga, despite a couple of recent setbacks. Two consecutive defeats to Barcelona and Betis are outliers in an otherwise impressive run: Marcelino’s side have claimed eight victories in their last ten league matches and currently sit third in the table. Their stats as the underdog are particularly impressive - the “Yellow Submarine” squeeze the most out of disciplined, counter-attacking football, often thriving with minimal possession.
The absence of the suspended Comesaña and Mourinho could impact their balance in midfield and the wings, but Villarreal still have the trump cards of rapid transitions from defense and clinical finishing. Against Barça, they played with ten men from the 39th minute but still generated 2.16 xG - a testament to their systematic approach. Facing Real Madrid is another stern test for the Yellow Submarine, who have lost just once at home all season.
Real Madrid arrive in high spirits after convincing wins over Levante and, notably, Monaco (6-1) in the Champions League. But those games were more of a warm-up - their opponents lacked defensive discipline and gave away far too much space. Villarreal won’t be so generous. In fact, Madrid have a poor record at the Cerámica, with only two wins from their last ten visits.
Arbeloa has injected new life into the team, but now faces his first real acid test. With Tchouaméni out of midfield and possible issues for Rodrygo and Asensio, the attacking trio will bear even more responsibility. Mbappé and Vinícius are both capable of deciding the match single-handedly, but without midfield control, Real could struggle - especially given their recent away form, where they have often dropped points.
Probable lineups
- Villarreal: Júnior, Pedraza, Veiga, Foyth, Navarro, Moleiro, Parejo, Guye, Buchanan, Moreno, Mikautadze
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Asensio, Heysen, Carreras, Camavinga, Güler, Bellingham, Mastantuono, Júnior, Mbappé
Match facts and head-to-head
- Real Madrid have won just two of their last ten away matches against Villarreal in La Liga.
- Villarreal have claimed eight wins in their last ten La Liga fixtures.
- At least four goals have been scored in four of the last six head-to-head encounters.
Prediction
Both sides are missing key players, but Villarreal appear more cohesive in their play. Sitting deep and countering suits them against Real’s style - especially given the visitors’ issues in defensive midfield and their general inconsistency away from home. Still, with Mbappé and Vinícius in the lineup, you can never count Madrid out. But their risk of defeat is higher than usual - everything points to a tightly contested match.
