USA vs Haiti prediction, H2H and probable lineups — June 23, 2025
On June 23, 2025, the third round of the CONCACAF Gold Cup will feature a Group D clash between the United States and Haiti. Kickoff is scheduled for 01:00 Central European Time. Let's take a closer look at the teams' scoring potential in this match.
USA
The US national team confidently lives up to its status as one of the tournament's main favorites, alongside Mexico and Canada. After two rounds, the Americans have showcased disciplined and assertive football. In their opening match, they left Trinidad and Tobago no chance, cruising to a 5-0 victory. The second round saw a tougher contest against Saudi Arabia, but the US controlled proceedings throughout and secured a narrow yet well-deserved 1-0 win.
With six points and a perfect defensive record, the USA tops Group D and has already booked a spot in the playoffs. The Americans are eager to make amends for their disappointment in the previous Gold Cup, where they were unexpectedly knocked out by Panama in the semifinals. Mexico took the title that year, while the US last lifted the trophy in 2021. The Americans boast seven Gold Cup titles—second only to Mexico.
Head-to-head history also favors the USA: since 2000, the sides have met five times, with the Americans unbeaten—three wins and two draws.
Haiti
Haiti has become a regular at the CONCACAF Gold Cup in recent years—this is their fourth consecutive appearance. Consistent results, however, remain elusive. In both 2021 and 2023, Haiti failed to progress beyond the group stage, picking up just three points each time. But in 2019, the team stunned everyone by reaching the semifinals: first upsetting Canada in the playoffs, then falling to eventual champions Mexico in the semis.
This year's tournament has proven challenging. Haiti narrowly lost 1-0 to Saudi Arabia in the opening round, then drew 1-1 with Trinidad and Tobago in the second round despite playing most of the match with ten men. That draw has seriously complicated their chances of advancing—they now need to beat the USA and hope that Saudi Arabia does not defeat Trinidad and Tobago. Such a scenario seems highly improbable.
Historically, Haiti has beaten the USA, but those victories are a distant memory. The last time Haiti defeated the Americans was back in 1969 during World Cup qualification—and they haven't tasted victory in this fixture since.
Probable lineups
- USA: Friese, Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten, De la Torre, Berhalter, McGlynn, Tillman, Luna, Agyemang.
- Haiti: Placide, Experience, Lacroix, Ade, Arcus, Jean-Jacques, Pierre, Attys, Nazon, Pierrot, Didson.
Interesting facts and head-to-head stats
- The USA has scored first in 3 of its last 4 matches.
- Haiti has failed to win in 3 of its last 4 matches.
- 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches between these teams have ended with under 2.5 goals scored.
USA vs Haiti match prediction
We're expecting a match dominated by the USA, but likely without excessive attacking fireworks. The Americans have cruised through the first two rounds without conceding and have already clinched a playoff berth. Given this, they're unlikely to push themselves to the limit in this encounter. Haiti, on the other hand, faces an almost impossible task—beating the tournament favorites—while struggling for goals and unlikely to seriously threaten the USA's solid defense. Under these circumstances, a cautious game with few goals is the logical expectation. My pick for this match: total goals under 3.5 at odds of 1.5.
