USA vs Costa Rica: who will reach the CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinals?

USA vs Costa Rica prediction Photo: https://x.com/USMNT
Finished
2 : 2
Penalty
4 : 3
International, Glendale, State Farm Stadium
Diego Luna
43'
Max Arfsten
47'
12' (P)
Francisco Calvo
71'
Alonso Martinez

In the CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinal, the United States will face Costa Rica in the early hours of Monday, June 30. Kick-off is scheduled for 1:00 a.m. Central European Time. Here’s our preview and prediction for this high-stakes clash.

USA vs Costa Rica: match preview

The US stormed through the group stage in dominant fashion. The team didn’t drop a single point: they opened with a 5-0 rout of Trinidad and Tobago, followed by a narrow 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia and a 2-1 victory against Tahiti. Nine points from nine, and a well-deserved top spot in their group. Now, the Americans are eyeing yet another semifinal appearance—since 2000, they’ve consistently reached this stage, missing out only once, in that very year.

Their opponents, Costa Rica, have also proven their mettle. The Ticos went unbeaten in the group phase, edging Suriname 4-3 in their opener, beating the Dominican Republic 2-1, and drawing 1-1 with Mexico in their final match. Seven points were enough for a playoff spot, but a poorer goal difference relegated Costa Rica to second in the group. The last time Costa Rica advanced beyond the quarterfinals was back in 2017. In the past 20 years, they’ve managed it only twice.

Key facts and head-to-head history

  • The United States have won three straight matches.
  • Costa Rica are unbeaten in their last five games.
  • The USA have reached the Gold Cup semifinals every time since 2000.
  • Costa Rica have been eliminated in the quarterfinals in each of the last three tournaments.
  • Their most recent encounter ended with a dominant 3-0 win for the US.

Probable lineups

  • USA: Freese — Arfsten, Ream, Richards, Freeman — De la Torre, Berhalter, Tillman, Luna, McGlynn — Agyemang
  • Costa Rica: Navas — Mora, Calvo, Faerron, Mitchell, Mora — Aguilera, Galo, Bran — Ugalde, Martinez

Prediction

Costa Rica delivered a solid group stage performance, but the US looked even more convincing. With the tournament on American soil and the quarterfinals historically being a stumbling block for Costa Rica, I’m backing the USA to win at odds of 1.56.

Prediction on game Win USA
Odds: 1.53
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