The visitors are chasing their first win. Nacional vs Alverca prediction
Nacional and Alverca will meet on Saturday, 12 September, in the sixth round of the Portuguese Primeira Liga. The match will take place at the Madeira Stadium in Funchal, with kick-off at 16:30 CET. I am backing a goals market bet for this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Nacional have lost three consecutive matches.
- Nacional have scored in six consecutive home games.
- Alverca have gone eight matches without a win.
- Alverca have lost their last five away matches.
- The teams have met four times, with two home wins apiece.
Nacional head into the sixth round of the Portuguese league in the bottom half of the table. After five matches, the team have four points, with one win, one draw and three defeats. Their start to the season has been inconsistent: the islanders drew 2-2 with Santa Clara in the opening round, then comfortably beat Estoril 2-0 before losing to Vitória Guimarães, Estrela Amadora and Sporting.
At the same time, four points give Nacional a small cushion over the relegation zone for now. The team's main strength remains their ability to create chances at home: their victory over Estoril came at the Madeira Stadium, with the hosts also keeping a clean sheet.
Their recent results mean the team will need to pay particular attention to their defensive organisation. After beating Estoril, Nacional lost 0-1 to Vitória Guimarães, then suffered a 2-3 defeat by Estrela before being unable to offer much against Sporting in the previous round, losing 0-2 in Lisbon. The match against one of the championship favourites showed just how difficult things can become for the islanders under sustained pressure.
Ahead of the next match, home advantage could prove to be one of Nacional's key strengths. They have already picked up points and scored twice in a single game on Madeira, while Alverca have struggled badly away from home. The hosts will therefore be expected to try to take control from the opening minutes and force their opponents deeper. A victory would not only improve Nacional's league position but also end their run of three consecutive defeats.
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Alverca have had a much more difficult start to the season. After five rounds, the club remain without a win and have just two points. The team have drawn twice and lost three times, with their latest setback coming at home to Braga, 1-2. Before that, Alverca lost to Porto and Sporting, while their only points came against Estrela Amadora and Santa Clara. The team currently sit 16th in the relegation zone.
Defence remains Alverca's main problem. The team have conceded ten goals in five matches, an average of two per game. Things have been particularly difficult against the leading sides: Porto scored twice, while Sporting found the net three times. However, Alverca have also failed to keep clean sheets against more comparable opponents.
At the same time, Alverca should not be completely underestimated. The team have scored five goals in five rounds and have already shown that they can cause opponents problems. They scored twice at home against Estrela, while they managed to take a point against Santa Clara. Away from home, however, the situation looks considerably worse: Alverca have lost both of their league away matches — against Porto and Sporting — with an aggregate score of 1-5.
Another important factor is that Alverca are yet to taste victory in the Primeira Liga. The team can stay in contention for large periods of matches, but they regularly make mistakes that lead to conceded goals. In Madeira, it will be particularly important for the visitors not to allow Nacional to score first: if the hosts take the lead, they can adopt a more cautious approach and exploit the space on the counter-attack. Alverca's current form provides little reason to expect a confident defensive performance.
What to bet on?
Both teams are in the bottom half of the table, but Nacional look the stronger side thanks to home advantage and the fact that they have already secured a home win in this league campaign. Alverca are yet to win, have conceded ten goals and have lost both away matches, although the calibre of their opponents in the opening rounds was extremely high, so it would be premature to draw conclusions about poor form. The most likely scenario appears to be a bet on over 2 total goals.
